Factbox: Michel Barnier’s Initial Challenges as France’s New Prime Minister

PARIS (Reuters) – Michel Barnier, a prominent figure in the French conservative party, has been appointed Prime Minister by President Emmanuel Macron. As he assumes office, Barnier is faced with a multitude of pressing issues, particularly the need to navigate complex budget legislation.

FORMING A GOVERNMENT

One of Barnier’s primary tasks will be to assemble a new government, which requires President Macron’s approval. Given that Macron’s party does not hold a parliamentary majority, Barnier will need to be strategic in assigning ministerial roles. Any missteps could leave him vulnerable to opposition scrutiny.

VOTE OF CONFIDENCE

Traditionally, after establishing a government, the newly appointed Prime Minister addresses the National Assembly to present key policy objectives and potential reforms. Following this address, it is customary for the Prime Minister to seek a vote of confidence from the lower house of parliament. Should Barnier choose not to pursue this, opposition parties could initiate a confidence vote against him.

To survive a no-confidence motion, Barnier would require 289 votes in the 577-seat assembly. With left-leaning parties likely opposing him, his fate may depend on whether the far-right National Rally decides to abstain. They have indicated they will wait to assess his stance on immigration and electoral reform before taking a position.

BUDGET

Assuming Barnier successfully navigates the confidence vote, his immediate challenge will be to draft the 2025 budget legislation, due for submission by October 1. This timeframe provides limited opportunity for his team to finalize the budget, which is already facing scrutiny from the national public finance watchdog.

Adding to the difficulty, this year’s budget deficit has significantly exceeded projections, compelling Barnier to make careful choices about spending cuts and tax increases. Once the budget is presented to parliament, he will rely on his new finance minister to counter efforts from the left to amend it drastically, especially amid increasing calls for tax hikes.

The budget’s passage through parliament is expected to be contentious, likely extending until a final vote in December. If opposition parties remain dissatisfied during this process, they could call for a vote of confidence, placing Barnier’s government at further risk.