5 Key Aspects to Monitor for Autonomous Players Ahead of Robotaxi Day

Investing Insights on Tesla’s Robotaxi Day

As Tesla prepares for Robotaxi Day on October 10, analysts from Morgan Stanley have identified five critical factors to watch concerning the autonomous vehicle landscape, particularly in relation to Waymo, Uber, and Lyft.

1) The Trillion-Mile Autonomous Opportunity: The U.S. rideshare market currently represents only about 1% of the total miles driven, with Uber and Lyft projected to generate around $54 billion in gross bookings by 2024. Analysts believe that the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) could significantly broaden this market, making rideshare services more affordable and accessible, thereby increasing usage and frequency.

2) Technological Innovation and the Speed of Autonomous Rollout: A primary area of interest for Robotaxi Day is whether Tesla will showcase significant advancements in AV technology. Innovations in machine vision, autonomous driving systems, and GPU-enabled training may be crucial. However, Morgan Stanley remains cautious, acknowledging that the path to a fully operational autonomous offering faces technological, regulatory, and safety challenges. Any notable progress from Tesla in these domains could accelerate the adoption of AVs over the next 5-10 years.

3) The Necessity of a Hybrid Marketplace: Analysts will be keen to see if Tesla announces any technological enhancements or cost reductions that might provide it a competitive edge over Waymo. The presence of multiple players in the autonomous market is crucial for Uber, as a hybrid marketplace combining both human drivers and autonomous vehicles could facilitate the transition to autonomous driving.

4) Tesla’s Potential Cost Advantage: The possibility of Tesla launching a Level 4 (L4) autonomous service is a key consideration, as it could significantly lower the cost per mile. If successful, Tesla could achieve a 41% cost advantage over Uber and Lyft and a 21% edge over Waymo’s upcoming sixth-generation vehicle. Tesla’s advantage is largely due to its lower vehicle costs and camera-only technology as opposed to Waymo’s reliance on more expensive sensors.

5) Observing Market Trends in Key Cities: After Robotaxi Day, the success of autonomous programs in cities like Austin, Atlanta, and Phoenix will offer valuable insights. These locations are vital for testing the integration of AVs with rideshare services. Positive trends in these markets could signal a favorable outlook for Uber’s marketplace strategy, while a lack of incremental growth could pose risks.

In summary, the developments from Tesla’s Robotaxi Day and subsequent market trends will be pivotal in shaping the future of ridesharing and autonomous vehicles.