Why is Israel Planning a Rafah Offensive and What Would It Mean?

Israel plans to intensify its ground assault in Rafah, a city where over 1 million Palestinians have sought refuge due to the ongoing military offensive that has devastated much of the Gaza Strip since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7.

Recent Israeli air strikes began targeting Rafah, located in the southern Gaza Strip near the Egyptian border.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has labeled Rafah as the “last bastion” of Hamas, suggesting that the presence of four battalions of Hamas fighters there prevents Israel from achieving its goal of dismantling the organization. Since the October 7 assault, which resulted in approximately 1,200 Israeli deaths and the abduction of 253 individuals into Gaza, Israel has sought to eradicate Hamas. The military campaign has led to over 28,000 reported deaths in Gaza, according to health authorities in the territory.

UNRWA, a United Nations agency providing aid to Palestinians, reports that Rafah’s population has surged to nearly 1.5 million—six times higher than before the conflict escalated. Many residents are living in makeshift conditions, including streets, empty lots, and overcrowded shelters, as they seek refuge from the violence. Medical professionals and aid workers are struggling to deliver basic necessities and contain disease outbreaks; the Norwegian Refugee Council has termed Rafah a “gigantic refugee camp.” One doctor who exited Gaza described the situation as a “closed jail,” with congested streets and severe sanitation issues.

Israel previously instructed civilians to head south in anticipation of military operations in other areas of the Gaza Strip, resulting in many moving to Rafah. Although Netanyahu’s office has stated a plan is being developed to evacuate Rafah, aid organizations and foreign governments assert there are limited options for displaced individuals. Egypt has reinforced its stance against permitting an influx of Palestinian refugees crossing into its territory.

In response to Israel’s planned offensive, U.S. President Joe Biden has urged Netanyahu to ensure the safety of those sheltering in Rafah. Other allies, including the United Kingdom and Germany, have raised concerns over the potential humanitarian implications of the operation. Dutch Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins Slot highlighted the difficulty of conducting large-scale military actions in such a densely populated area without resulting in significant civilian casualties and a worsening humanitarian crisis, calling the plans “unjustifiable.”

Egypt has warned of “dire consequences” if the situation escalates further. While Israel asserts it takes measures to protect civilians, it argues that military operations are necessary due to Hamas’s activities in civilian zones.