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Oil prices experienced a decline on Monday, reversing earlier gains that followed the confirmation of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash.
As of 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT), crude oil prices fell by 0.5%, settling at $83.53 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 0.6% to $79.10 per barrel.
### Focus on Iran’s Stability After Helicopter Incident
Crude oil prices initially rose following reports that President Raisi and his foreign minister were involved in a helicopter crash over the weekend, which was attributed to poor weather conditions in mountainous terrain. Raisi had been viewed as a potential successor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, a pivotal figure in the nation’s political hierarchy.
State media later confirmed Raisi’s death, but tensions appeared to ease as no external parties were blamed for the incident. Experts suggest that Iran’s oil policies are unlikely to change in the wake of this tragedy, as current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei retains ultimate authority over all crucial state matters.
Concerns regarding ongoing instability in the Middle East continue to support oil prices, with rates remaining comfortably above $80 for most of 2024.
### Caution in the Market Amid Rate and OPEC Anticipation
Despite the initial rally, there remains significant caution in the oil markets as investors await important information regarding U.S. interest rates and economic indicators this week. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s late-April meeting are expected, along with speeches from multiple Fed officials.
Market participants are also on high alert ahead of the upcoming meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), scheduled for June 1. Any announcements pertaining to the cartel’s plans for ongoing production cuts will be closely monitored.
Analysts from ING noted, “We might need to wait for further clarity from OPEC+ regarding its output policy for the latter half of the year before the market can gain new momentum and break out of its recent range.”
