Crude Oil Rises in October Debut Ahead of OPEC Meeting

Oil Prices Increase Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

By Peter Nurse

Oil prices have risen in anticipation of next week’s meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), despite growing speculation that leading crude producers may push for a larger output increase than previously planned.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for U.S. oil, concluded the first trading session of October with an increase of 85 cents, or 1.1%, settling at $75.88 per barrel. This marks a 2.6% rise for the week, marking the sixth consecutive week of gains, accumulating a total increase of 22% for the U.S. crude benchmark.

Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, finished Thursday’s trading at $79.28 per barrel, up by 97 cents or 1.2%. Brent experienced a weekly rise of 1.9%, continuing its upward trend with cumulative gains of 22% over five of the past six weeks.

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Monday, with reports indicating that the group is considering exceeding its existing agreement to increase supply by 400,000 barrels per day each month, largely in response to pressures from consumer nations, including the United States and India, to lower prices.

Analysts at ING commented, “Given the current environment, we believe it is safe to assume that an increase of at least 400,000 barrels per day for November is guaranteed. The bigger uncertainty lies in whether the group will opt for a more aggressive easing.”

Both WTI and Brent have recorded significant gains this year, with both contracts rising over 50% year-to-date. Additional increases could occur, especially with China directing its state-owned companies to secure energy supplies for the winter, which may lead to higher prices for oil products, including fuel oil and diesel.

"Spot Asian LNG is trading at an oil equivalent of around $177 per barrel, providing a clear incentive for gas-to-oil switching," ING noted. "This indicates that we should expect stronger oil demand in the coming months, suggesting a tighter oil market through the end of the year."