Analysis: EU Commissioner Retreat Highlights Macron’s Decreasing Influence in Europe

By Michel Rose

PARIS – French President Emmanuel Macron is perceived as having diminished influence on the European stage following his decision to support Ursula von der Leyen and forfeit his prominent EU Commission nominee, Thierry Breton, according to experts.

Breton resigned unexpectedly on Monday, criticizing von der Leyen, who was re-elected as the executive chief of the EU, marking a significant shift in the political landscape after June’s European elections.

While Macron’s allies assert that he has secured a more significant role for his replacement, Stéphane Séjourné, a loyal supporter, it appears that von der Leyen has emerged as the principal beneficiary of this transition, having successfully outmaneuvered Macron.

Von der Leyen announced a new team of commissioners on Tuesday, who will lead the European Union’s most powerful institution for the next five years, with each of the 27 member states represented.

Jean-Dominique Giuliani, President of the Robert-Schuman Foundation, remarked, "President (von der Leyen) intends to lead… on her own." He noted that "free spirits have no place" within her college, alluding to Breton’s resignation and lamenting the weakened position of the French president.

Breton, a seasoned politician and former French finance minister, had wielded considerable influence within the European Commission for five years and was viewed as a main competitor to von der Leyen. He gained media attention for his confrontations with tech magnate Elon Musk and was instrumental in shaping EU regulations regarding technology, COVID-vaccine strategies, and defense industry enhancements.

Despite expectations of his reappointment until last week, Macron’s support for von der Leyen’s re-election had come with the hope of securing a substantial economic portfolio for France. However, diplomatic sources indicate that von der Leyen informed Macron she would not grant the desired portfolio without relinquishing Breton’s position.

Once in a position of strength upon her return from summer break, von der Leyen effectively dictated terms to Macron, who was then preoccupied with negotiations regarding a new French prime minister following a hung parliament.

By conceding Breton’s role, Macron has lost leverage, especially given his pivotal role in securing von der Leyen’s selection five years ago. Macron’s aides suggest that the main concern for him was ensuring a significant portfolio for France in the new commission, and while he valued Breton, the commissioner’s identity was less crucial.

Séjourné will assume a significant position, directing the industry portfolio and gaining access to new financial tools currently divided among other departments. He will hold the title of executive vice-president, overseeing a group of four commissioners.

However, experts familiar with EU dynamics explain that true power lies in the number of directorates-general under one’s control. Breton had three, while Séjourné will have just one, although French officials claim he will supervise other commissioners.

Critics argue that Séjourné, despite being instrumental in Macron’s rise, lacks the substantial experience in large organizations that characterized Breton’s career, and he may not command the same influence among global leaders.

Given Brexit and increasing geopolitical challenges, some analysts underscore the potential void left by Breton’s departure, particularly in defense policy.

François Heisbourg, a geopolitical analyst, expressed concerns about the implications of his resignation, stating, "Just what Europe and notably European defence didn’t need." He acknowledged Breton’s contributions to the development of EU arms procurement policy, highlighting that his expertise and energy will be missed.