Trump’s Tax and Spending Plans Would Add Twice the Debt Compared to Harris’, Budget Group Reports

By David Lawder

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A recent analysis by a budget-focused think tank indicates that the tax and spending plans proposed by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump would result in more than double the new debt compared to those from Vice President Kamala Harris.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which advocates for reducing federal deficits, released detailed estimates on Monday. According to their findings, Harris’s tax and spending initiatives would contribute an additional $3.5 trillion to deficits over a decade, while Trump’s plans would lead to a $7.5 trillion increase.

These figures represent the CRFB’s "central estimate," which reflects various potential outcomes based on the candidates’ campaign proposals. The report also included the range of estimates, with Harris’s low end predicting no added debt and a high end of $8.1 trillion. For Trump, the low end would see an increase of $1.45 trillion, while the high end could reach $15.15 trillion.

TAX AND SPENDING PROMISES

Trump has proposed a series of tax cuts, including the extension of the 2017 individual tax cuts set to expire next year and the elimination of taxes on income from tips, Social Security, and overtime pay. His primary strategy for raising revenue would be through increasing tariffs, which the CRFB estimates could generate $2.7 trillion.

On the other hand, Harris has committed to expanding the Child Tax Credit and introducing a $6,000 bonus credit for newborns, in addition to enhancing funding for child and elder care. She also proposes a $25,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers while advocating for tax increases on corporations and households earning over $400,000. The CRFB estimates these measures could raise $4.25 trillion.

The detailed findings from the CRFB align with earlier budget analyses, suggesting that Trump’s fiscal proposals could significantly increase national debt compared to those of Harris.

Both campaigns expressed criticism regarding the CRFB’s estimates. A spokesperson for Harris contested the assessment, arguing that her measures would ultimately reduce deficits, as she intends to fully fund her policy initiatives.

Trump’s senior advisor, Brian Hughes, dismissed the CRFB estimates, noting that the group had previously opposed the 2017 tax cuts and supported the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, which was passed with Harris’s decisive vote in the Senate. Hughes asserted that Trump’s plan would curb excessive spending, combat inflation, and promote economic growth, thereby enhancing federal revenue.

The CRFB’s estimates assess the prospective spending and revenue changes from the candidates’ proposals against the current-law baseline, as established by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This baseline anticipates that the 2017 tax cuts will lapse at the end of 2025, resulting in a projected 10-year deficit increase of $22 trillion, which includes nearly $2 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year that concluded on September 30.