US Forecasters Predict High Number of Major Hurricanes in 2024, According to Reuters

Forecast Predicts Busy 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

By Erwin Seba

HOUSTON – U.S. government meteorologists announced on Thursday that the upcoming 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on June 1, could see up to seven major hurricanes. This forecast is considered "extraordinary," surpassing prior estimates ahead of the record-setting 2005 season that brought hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Officials project the formation of between four and seven major hurricanes as part of an anticipated total of eight to 13 hurricanes resulting from 17 to 25 named tropical storms. Rick Spinrad, administrator of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), highlighted the unusually high figures.

An average hurricane season usually yields around 14 named storms, of which about seven develop into hurricanes and three reach "major" status with wind speeds exceeding 111 mph (178 kph). Forecasters expect that warm sea temperatures and reduced wind shear conditions will fuel stronger storms, particularly during the peak months of August and September.

"This forecast has higher ranges than 2005," lead forecaster Matthew Rosencrans stated during a news conference. "These are the highest ranges we have ever forecast."

In 2023, three major hurricanes were recorded among seven total hurricanes and 20 named storms, marking the fourth-highest number of named storms since 1950. The most devastating storm, Idalia, impacted Florida’s west coast, making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane.

NOAA’s predictions are closely watched by coastal communities and energy companies alike. The Colorado State University forecast, released in April, estimated five major hurricanes as part of a total of 11 hurricanes from a broader projection of 23 named tropical storms.

The U.S. Gulf of Mexico is crucial to the nation’s energy infrastructure, accounting for 15% of total oil production and 5% of its dry output, while nearly half of the country’s oil-refining capacity is situated along its coastline.

Additionally, private forecaster AccuWeather has given a 10-15% chance that the 2024 season could see 30 or more named storms, with the season concluding on November 30.