Regional Victory Provides Brief Respite for Germany’s Scholz Amid Increasing Party Pressure

By Sarah Marsh and Riham Alkousaa

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) managed to fend off the far-right during a regional election on Sunday, although the win is likely only a temporary relief amid rising criticism of his leadership within the party.

In a significant comeback, the SPD secured 30.9% of the vote in the eastern state of Brandenburg, where the party has been in power since Germany’s reunification in 1990, and where Scholz has his own constituency.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which had led polls in the state for the past two years, received 29.2% according to preliminary official results. Despite falling short of victory, the AfD has increased its support by 5.7 percentage points compared to the last election in Brandenburg five years ago. Earlier this month, it made history by becoming the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War Two.

The AfD has been gaining traction by addressing concerns related to the cost-of-living crisis in Europe’s largest economy, immigration issues, and potential escalations in the war in Ukraine due to Germany’s military support to Kyiv.

Notably, an exit poll indicated that about three-quarters of those who voted for the SPD did so primarily to block the AfD rather than out of support for the SPD’s platform, as voter turnout reached a record 72.9%.

Brandenburg’s SPD premier, Dietmar Woidke, distanced himself from Scholz during the campaign, even criticizing the federal coalition’s policies and ongoing disputes.

The results from this regional election are unlikely to quell the internal debates within the SPD regarding Scholz’s suitability to lead the party into the federal elections next year, especially amid critiques of his leadership style and communication abilities. When asked whether the SPD federal leadership was appropriate, Woidke stated that it was not the right moment for such discussions, but emphasized the need for the party to connect better with voters, signaling that the federal leadership has much work ahead.

Nationally, the SPD is polling at only 15%, a drop from 25.7% in the 2021 federal elections, placing it behind the AfD at around 20% and the opposition conservatives at 32%.

Recently, the mayor of Munich suggested that the SPD should consider endorsing popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius for the upcoming 2025 elections. However, party insiders believe that Scholz, who has already announced his intention to run for a second term, is unlikely to back down, with many senior officials remaining loyal to him.

In Berlin, the junior partners in Scholz’s coalition suffered poor results in Sunday’s election, potentially exacerbating tensions within the government. The Greens fell below the 5% threshold needed to enter the state parliament for the first time in two decades, garnering only 4.1% of the vote, while the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) received less than 1%.

FDP Vice Chairman Wolfgang Kubicki warned that the coalition must take decisive action in response to these election outcomes, or else risk dissolution, emphasizing the urgency of the situation.

Despite these challenges, analysts believe it is unlikely the government will collapse, as none of the coalition parties would likely benefit from snap elections, given their combined support currently stands at around 30%, less than that of the conservatives alone.