Jefferies Expresses Caution on China iPhone 16 Demand

Jefferies has expressed caution regarding the demand for Apple Inc.’s new iPhone 16 in China, noting that its presence on third-party platforms in the country suggests some weakness in end-user demand.

While the iPhone 16 and 16 Pro models appeared to be "sold out" on Apple’s official website in China, third-party platforms like Tmall and PDD still had the new models readily available, which may indicate lower consumer interest. Jefferies highlighted that delivery times for both Pro models on Apple’s site had not increased since pre-orders began, and delivery times on Tmall had actually decreased. Additionally, PDD continued to offer both Pro models for delivery prior to September 30.

In a follow-up analysis, Jefferies assessed pre-order delivery times for the iPhone 16 across six key markets: China, Hong Kong, the U.S., the UK, and Germany. Their initial assessment on September 15 showed subdued demand during the first two days after the iPhone’s availability.

Improving Demand for iPhone Pro Models Outside China

Jefferies indicated that demand for Pro models outside of China is showing signs of improvement. Wait times for the 16 Pro have increased, contrasting with earlier indications that the model was available for delivery within two to three weeks. Similar trends of lengthening wait times were noted in the UK and Germany, while delivery times in Japan remained stable.

In the U.S., the average delivery lead time for the 16 Pro Max has remained at three to four weeks, compared to five to six weeks around the same time last year.

The iPhone 16 series marks Apple’s initial integration of generative artificial intelligence into its devices, although the company has indicated that the rollout of its AI features will happen gradually over the coming months. Apple is relying on these AI capabilities to drive a revival in iPhone sales, which have been lagging for more than a year, especially in the competitive Chinese market.