Exclusive US-Iraq Deal Expected to Result in Troop Withdrawals Within First Year, Sources Indicate

By Timour Azhari and Ahmed Rasheed

BAGHDAD – The United States and Iraq have come to an understanding regarding the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq, according to several sources familiar with the discussions.

The broadly agreed-upon plan awaits final approval from both governments and the announcement date. It involves the departure of hundreds of troops by September 2025, with the remaining personnel leaving by the end of 2026. A senior U.S. official stated, "We have an agreement; it’s now just a question of when to announce it."

Additionally, the U.S. and Iraq are exploring the establishment of a new advisory relationship, which may allow some U.S. troops to remain in Iraq after the drawdown.

An official announcement had originally been scheduled for weeks ago, but it was postponed due to regional tensions related to the ongoing conflict in Gaza and to finalize remaining details. Sources involved in the discussions include five U.S. officials, two coalition representatives, and three Iraqi officials, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity.

Some sources indicated that the announcement could occur this month. Farhad Alaaldin, a foreign affairs adviser to the Iraqi prime minister, mentioned that technical discussions with Washington on the coalition’s drawdown had concluded. "We are now on the brink of transitioning the relationship between Iraq and members of the international coalition to a new level, focusing on bilateral relations in military, security, economic, and cultural areas," he stated.

He did not provide specifics about the plan, and the coalition did not respond to inquiries.

A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department and a defense official noted that U.S. President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani had expressed in a joint statement in April their intent to evaluate factors necessary for determining the conclusion of the Global Coalition’s mission in Iraq and to transition to enduring bilateral security partnerships.

This agreement follows over six months of negotiations between Baghdad and Washington, initiated by Prime Minister al-Sudani due to attacks on U.S. forces by Iranian-backed Iraqi groups. These attacks, involving rockets and drones, have resulted in the deaths of three American troops and numerous injuries, prompting U.S. retaliation that risks destabilizing Iraq further.

Currently, approximately 2,500 U.S. troops are stationed in Iraq, alongside 900 in neighboring Syria as part of the coalition formed in 2014 to combat the Islamic State. The militant group, which once controlled roughly a third of Iraq and Syria, was territorially defeated in Iraq by the end of 2017 and in Syria in 2019. According to Alaaldin, Iraq has demonstrated its capability to manage any ongoing threats.

The U.S. originally invaded Iraq in 2003, overthrowing dictator Saddam Hussein before withdrawing in 2011. The U.S. returned in 2014 at the helm of the coalition against the Islamic State. Other nations, including Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, also provide troop contributions to the coalition.

Under the new plan, all coalition forces would leave the Ain al-Asad airbase in western Anbar province and significantly reduce their presence in Baghdad by September 2025. U.S. and coalition troops are expected to remain in Erbil, in the semi-autonomous northern Kurdistan region, for approximately another year until the end of 2026, to support ongoing operations against the Islamic State in Syria.

Details of troop movements remain confidential due to military sensitivities. The drawdown signifies a critical change in Washington’s military strategy in the region, with U.S. officials acknowledging the presence also serves as a counterbalance to Iranian influence. This becomes increasingly pertinent as tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, with U.S. forces in Iraq recently intercepting rockets and drones targeting Israel.

Prime Minister al-Sudani has noted that while U.S. assistance is appreciated, American troops have become a focal point for instability, frequently targeted and often engaging in retaliatory strikes without coordinated efforts with the Iraqi government. The impending agreement is expected to be a political advantage for al-Sudani as he navigates Iraq’s alignment between Washington and Tehran, particularly with the first phase of the withdrawal occurring one month before the Iraqi parliamentary elections in October 2025.

For the U.S., the two-year timeline offers "breathing room," allowing for adjustments if regional conditions shift, according to a U.S. official. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has not responded to requests for comment.