China to Promote Green Tech Exports to African Leaders Amid Western Restrictions

By Joe Cash and Duncan Miriri

BEIJING/NAIROBI – China is set to encourage a summit of 50 African nations in Beijing this week to increase their imports of Chinese goods, particularly as Western restrictions on Chinese exports like electric vehicles and solar panels come into effect. In return, China is expected to make further commitments for loans and investments.

However, African leaders attending the three-yearly event may be looking for more than just promises. They are likely to demand accountability regarding China’s unfulfilled commitment from the last summit in 2021, which involved a pledge to purchase $300 billion worth of goods. Additionally, they will want updates on the status of ongoing Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, including a railway intended to connect the East African region.

“The countries that will benefit most are those that have closely analyzed the shifts in China and have tailored their proposals to align with its refined priorities,” noted Eric Olander, co-founder of the China-Global South Project. Yet, achieving this alignment may prove challenging for a continent often characterized by low familiarity with China’s evolving landscape.

China, Africa’s primary lender, investor, and trade partner, is shifting its focus away from large-scale projects to concentrate on providing advanced and green technologies. With expectations of increased Western barriers to its exports, Beijing is prioritizing the sale of electric vehicles and solar panels, where it faces allegations of overproduction. It is also keen on establishing production bases in emerging markets.

Recently, China has started adjusting its loan conditions for African nations, increasing funding for solar farms, electric vehicle manufacturing plants, and 5G infrastructure while scaling back investment in traditional projects like bridges, ports, and railways. Last year, China extended 13 loans totaling $4.2 billion to eight African nations and two regional banks, with about $500 million allocated for hydropower and solar initiatives.

GEOPOLITICAL JOSTLING

As President Xi Jinping opens the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit on Thursday, he is poised to promote China’s expanding green energy sector to leaders from countries such as Gambia, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Representatives from nearly every African nation will be present, except for Eswatini, with which China has no diplomatic relations.

To maintain its market share, the United States has begun hosting African leaders as a countermeasure to China’s influence. Other countries, including Britain, Italy, Russia, and South Korea, have also recognized the importance of engaging with Africa’s youthful population and its representation within the United Nations.

China’s substantial role as a financial and trade partner makes this summit more significant than others. “No other development partner matches China’s contribution,” remarked Hannah Ryder, founder of Development Reimagined, an African-owned consultancy. However, she questioned whether African leaders could effectively negotiate terms that would tilt the advantages more toward themselves.

MATCHING WANTS AND NEEDS

China will be keen to discuss increasing trade and accessing vital minerals like cobalt and lithium from nations such as Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe. However, it may approach new funding commitments with caution given the recent debt restructuring efforts in countries like Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zambia since the 2021 summit.

“We can expect a measured approach regarding financing large-scale projects,” indicated Lina Benabdallah from the Centre for African Studies at Harvard University, noting that China may favor technology transfers over direct funding.

“I am eager to see what new financing commitments arise from this summit and how they will address existing debt owed by African nations,” said Yvette Babb, a portfolio manager at William Blair. Nonetheless, China’s willingness to lend may be tempered by security issues, including recent conflicts affecting its operations and protests in Kenya related to tax increases.