Exclusive: Harris Expands Lead Over Trump to 47%-40%, According to Reuters/Ipsos Poll

By Jason Lange

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight lead over Republican Donald Trump in the race for the U.S. presidential election on November 5, with a recent poll showing Harris at 47% and Trump at 40%. This survey indicates that Harris may be mitigating Trump’s perceived advantages regarding the economy and job market.

According to the three-day poll, which concluded on Monday, Harris garnered support from approximately 46.61% of registered voters, compared to Trump’s 40.48%. This reflects an increase in her lead from a previous poll conducted in mid-September, where she was ahead by five percentage points.

The current poll carries a margin of error of about four percentage points. While national surveys, including this one, provide insights into voter sentiment, the ultimate outcome of the election will be determined by state-by-state results in the Electoral College, particularly in seven key battleground states.

In these critical states, recent polling shows the race is tight, with several results falling within the margin of error. A recent survey highlighted Trump holding narrow leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

When voters were asked about which candidate they felt had a better strategy for the economy, unemployment, and jobs, 43% favored Trump while 41% chose Harris. Trump’s lead on this issue has diminished over recent months; he held a three-point advantage in an August poll and an eleven-point lead shortly after Harris began her campaign.

Harris entered the race following President Joe Biden’s decision to suspend his reelection bid due to a challenging debate against Trump in June. At that time, Trump was perceived as the frontrunner, largely due to concerns about economic performance amid high inflation under Biden’s administration.

Earlier polls this year indicated that voters generally preferred Trump over Biden regarding economic issues by margins of five to eight points.

While Trump has maintained a significant edge in confidence regarding his economic management, a past survey showed him leading Harris by 11 points when voters were asked which candidate had a better overall approach to the economy.

Both candidates are emphasizing economic policies in their campaigns, as reflected in the latest polling, which identified the economy as the top concern for voters. Trump has proposed the establishment of special manufacturing zones on federal land and indicated plans to increase tariffs on imports.

In contrast, Harris has vowed to offer tax breaks for families with children while increasing taxes on corporations. She is expected to present new economic proposals soon, though some advisers have expressed concerns about the limited time left to effectively sway voters with policy initiatives.

The average of polling data reflects a closely contested national race, with Harris leading Trump by 48.3% to 45.8%. The most recent poll included responses from 1,029 U.S. adults, 871 of whom were registered voters. Among these registered voters, the subset most likely to participate in the election showed Harris leading Trump 50% to 44%.