Economy

Factbox: Most Brokerages Anticipate 50 Basis Points of Fed Rate Cuts for Remainder of 2024 – Reuters

Most major brokerages anticipate that the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement a cumulative interest rate reduction of 50 basis points during its November and December meetings. This follows the central bank’s recent announcement of a significant 50 basis points cut earlier this month.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the cut as a "recalibration" aimed at addressing the notable decrease in inflation observed since last year. He emphasized that while the economy remains robust, the central bank is keen to stay proactive in preventing potential job market deterioration.

Here’s a summary of the forecasts from major brokerages following the Fed’s decision:

Rate Cut Estimates (in basis points)

Brokerage November December Fed Funds Rate at End of 2025
BofA Global Research 50 25 2.75% – 3.00%
UBS Global Wealth Management 50 100 3.25% – 3.50%
Deutsche Bank 25 25 3.25% – 3.50%
Barclays 25 25 3.50% – 3.75%
Morgan Stanley 25 25 3.25% – 3.50% (through June 2025)
Macquarie 25 25 3.25% – 3.50% (through June 2025)
Goldman Sachs 25 25 3.25% – 3.50% (through June 2025)
Citigroup 50 25
J.P. Morgan 50 25
HSBC 100 25 3.25% – 3.50% (through June 2025)

Additionally, here are the forecasts from major brokerages prior to the Fed’s decision:

Rate Cut Estimates (in basis points)

Brokerage September November December
Goldman Sachs 25 25 25
BofA Global Research 25 25 25
UBS Global Wealth Management 50 25 25
J.P. Morgan 50 50 25
Wells Fargo 50 50 25
Nomura 25 25 25
Deutsche Bank 25 25 25
Morgan Stanley 25 25 25
Citigroup 25 50 50
Barclays 25 25 25
HSBC 25 25 25
Macquarie 25 25 25

Note: UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management operate as separate, independent entities within UBS Group. Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a fully owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank.

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