Outsider Preferred to Win El Salvador Presidential Election, According to Reuters

By Nelson Renteria

SAN SALVADOR – El Salvador’s two major political parties, which have dominated the country for the past thirty years, might see their power waning if voters decide on Sunday to elect a young outsider as president. This candidate, Nayib Bukele, represents a smaller third party and has committed to revitalizing the economy and reducing the exodus of migrants from what is recognized as one of the most violent countries globally.

Recent opinion polls indicate that Bukele, a former mayor of San Salvador, holds a significant advantage, potentially marking the first time in decades that a leader has emerged outside the established left- and right-wing parties. The ruling Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) is in desperate need of a surprising turnaround to retain its influence. Meanwhile, the conservative Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) is also trailing behind Bukele, who is aligned with the right-wing Great Alliance for National Unity (GANA).

Discontent with both longstanding parties has fostered strong support for Bukele, a 37-year-old businessman. However, polls suggest that the election could still be competitive. One pollster reported that in January, Bukele garnered 57 percent support, while another showed slightly less, at 42 percent.

To secure an outright victory, Bukele must achieve over 50 percent of the votes; otherwise, he will face a runoff against his nearest competitor on March 10. Approximately 5.3 million Salvadorans are eligible to vote.

"After thirty years, there have been no changes; the situation in the country is deteriorating," noted 63-year-old mechanic Mauricio Hernandez during a Bukele rally.

Even if he breaks the political mold, Bukele may find his capacity to legislate constrained, as GANA is anticipated to not hold a majority in Congress.

El Salvador has been plagued by gang violence in recent years, making it one of the world’s most dangerous countries. This pervasive violence significantly contributes to the mass migration from Central America to the United States, a source of frustration for the U.S. administration.

The Salvadoran government lodged a formal protest last year after comments made by U.S. President Donald Trump, who reportedly used derogatory language to reference the countries from which some immigrants originate. This remark came shortly after Trump announced plans to terminate a program that permitted approximately 200,000 Salvadorans to live and work in the U.S.

Trump has persistently threatened to reduce aid to El Salvador unless greater efforts are made to control the migrant flow heading north.

Public dissatisfaction has intensified under the current FMLN administration, which has been marred by corruption scandals involving high-profile politicians in a nation grappling with severe poverty. The current president, Salvador Sanchez Ceren, is legally prohibited from seeking immediate re-election for another five-year term.

In a departure from his predecessors, Bukele has vowed to eliminate corruption, adopting the slogan: "there is enough money when nobody is stealing."

A savvy user of social media, Bukele also aims to modernize government operations and initiate infrastructure projects as a strategy to reduce emigration to the United States, where an estimated one in four Salvadorans resides.