What if Trump Wins? Insights from Nomura Investor Survey Results

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, interest is growing regarding the possibility of a second term for Donald Trump.

A recent note from Nomura indicates that while Vice President Kamala Harris currently seems to be the narrow frontrunner, a Trump victory remains a strong possibility.

To better understand expectations for a potential Trump 2.0 presidency and its impact on U.S. policies, economy, and global markets, Nomura surveyed its clients.

The results suggest that investors expect Trump to take a more measured approach to tariffs than his statements might imply. A notable 60% of respondents believe that while Trump may raise tariffs, any increases will be less drastic than the proposed 60% on China and 10% on other countries.

Regarding tax policy, predictions indicate that Trump may continue the framework of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Nearly half of the surveyed participants (44%) anticipate that Trump will fully extend these tax cuts, and an additional 23% expect further reductions.

Immigration policy is anticipated to be another area of significant action. The survey revealed that a plurality of respondents (41%) expects sharp restrictions on illegal immigration without mass deportations, while a close 37% foresee both tough immigration controls and active deportations.

Under a second Trump term, foreign policy may undergo significant changes. Notably, 25% of respondents believe that Trump might withdraw the U.S. from NATO, while 59% think he will insist that certain allies contribute more towards U.S. defense expenditures.

Nomura’s survey also highlights concerns about rising inflation, a larger fiscal deficit, and heightened geopolitical tensions, especially in regions like the Middle East, Russia, and Ukraine.

Despite these potential challenges, 57% of respondents predict higher GDP growth under a Trump 2.0 presidency, suggesting a complex and nuanced outlook for both the U.S. economy and international relations.