Economic Forecasts for GDP, Inflation, and Other Assets by Reuters

The Federal Reserve recently implemented a substantial interest rate cut of 50 basis points during its meeting held on September 17-18. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that this decision underscored the commitment of policymakers to maintain a low unemployment rate in light of declining inflation.

Alongside the rate cut, Fed officials projected that the benchmark interest rate would decrease by another half percentage point by the end of this year, drop a full percentage point in the following year, and decline by another half point in 2026. However, they noted that the long-term economic outlook remains highly uncertain.

Here are some forecasts from leading financial institutions regarding economic growth, inflation, and asset class performance:

Forecasts for Stocks, Currencies, and Bonds:

• Goldman Sachs: Target for stocks at 5,600; US 10-year yield at 3.85%
• Morgan Stanley: Target for stocks at 5,400 (by June 2025); US 10-year yield at 3.75%
• UBS Global Wealth Management: Target for stocks at 5,200; US 10-year yield at 3.85%
• Wells Fargo: Target for stocks at 5,300-5,500; US 10-year yield between 3.75% and 4.25%
• Barclays: Target for stocks at 5,600; US 10-year yield at 4.25%
• J.P. Morgan: Target for stocks at 4,200; US 10-year yield at 3.55%
• BofA Global Research: Target for stocks at 5,400; US 10-year yield at 3.75%
• Deutsche Bank: Target for stocks at 5,750; US 10-year yield at 4.60%
• Citigroup: Target for stocks at 5,600; US 10-year yield at 4.20%
• HSBC: Target for stocks at 5,400; US 10-year yield at 3.00%
• Oppenheimer: Target for stocks at 5,900
• Evercore ISI: Target for stocks at 6,000
• RBC: Target for stocks at 5,700

U.S. Inflation:
Consumer prices in the U.S. saw a slight increase in August, but core inflation indicated some persistence due to rising housing and service costs.

Inflation Forecasts (Annual for 2024):

• Goldman Sachs: Headline CPI at 2.6%, Core PCE at 2.6%
• Morgan Stanley: Headline CPI at 2.1%, Core PCE at 2.7%
• Wells Fargo: Headline CPI at 3.0%, Core PCE at 2.6%
• Barclays: Headline CPI at 2.9%, Core PCE at 2.6%
• J.P. Morgan: Headline CPI at 2.5%, Core PCE at 2.5%
• BofA Global Research: Headline CPI at 3.5%, Core PCE at 2.8%
• Deutsche Bank: Headline CPI at 3.1%
• Citigroup: Headline CPI at 2.0%, Core PCE at 2.7%
• HSBC: Headline CPI at 3.4%

Global GDP Growth Forecasts for 2024:

• Goldman Sachs: Global at 4.7%, U.S. at 2.8%, China at 0.7%, Euro area at 1.1%, UK at 6.9%
• Morgan Stanley: Global at 4.8%, U.S. at 2.8%, China at 1.9%, UK at 0.5%, India at 6.4%
• UBS Global Wealth Management: Global at 3.1%, U.S. at 2.4%, China at 4.9%
• Barclays: Global at 4.5%, U.S. at 2.6%, China at 1.2%, UK at 0.3%, India at 6.2%
• J.P. Morgan: Global at 4.6%, U.S. at 2.6%, China at 6.5%, Euro area at 0.7%
• BofA Global Research: Global at 4.8%, U.S. at 3.2%, China at 2.7%, UK at 1.1%, India at 7.6%
• Deutsche Bank: Global at 4.5%, U.S. at 3.2%, China at 2.7%
• Citigroup: Global at 4.7%, U.S. at 2.4%, China at 0.7%, UK at 1.0%, India at 7.3%
• HSBC: Global at 4.6%, U.S. at 2.6%, China at 4.9%, UK at 0.5%, India at 6.3%

These projections reflect a mix of optimism and caution as the economic landscape continues to evolve.