Erdogan-Assad Meeting ‘Possible’ Despite Hurdles, Key Syrian Opposition Leader Says

By Jonathan Spicer

ISTANBUL – Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s proposals for discussions with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are unlikely to yield immediate results but aim to convey a message of reconciliation in a region increasingly preoccupied with conflict, according to Hadi Al Bahra, the head of Syria’s main opposition group abroad.

Ankara, which has historically supported rebels attempting to overthrow Assad, has intensified its efforts for direct negotiations. This push is motivated by a desire to secure its border with Syria and facilitate the return of the over three million Syrian refugees residing in Turkey.

Bahra, president of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, acknowledged that a meeting between Erdogan and Assad is "possible," despite Turkey’s awareness that the Assad regime is currently unable to fulfill its demands.

"Turkey is very eager about this," Bahra stated. "They clearly understand what they need to accomplish… yet they are fully aware of the limitations of Assad’s regime."

He added that while Erdogan knows the situation is challenging and will take time, Turkey is building a case and sending strong messages both to the world and the Assad regime, including to Arab states. Bahra, who leads the internationally recognized Syrian opposition, frequently engages in discussions with the United Nations and represents anti-Assad factions such as the Turkey-supported Syrian National Army.

Bahra’s cautious remarks followed Erdogan’s recent appeal to Assad, indicating that Turkey is "waiting for a response" from the war-torn nation, which has endured over a decade of conflict involving various global powers, including the United States, Russia, Iran, and Turkey itself.

Since 2016, Turkish troops have occupied significant areas of northern Syria, primarily to counter a Kurdish militia that Ankara considers a terrorist organization.

The ongoing conflict in Israel and Gaza, along with tensions involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, has exacerbated Syria’s challenges, pushing issues such as poverty, hunger, extremism, and continued violence further from the international spotlight. Bahra warned that this neglect could lead to a "full collapse" of the situation in Syria.

He noted that, for many global and regional powers, Syria does not rank among their top priorities. They perceive it as "a manageable humanitarian crisis," which Bahra argues is a misguided view.

Following meetings with U.S., Turkish, and other representatives last week, Bahra commented that the UN-led political process remains "frozen."

In terms of the refugee situation, both Russia and Iran have encouraged Erdogan and Assad to engage in dialogue. However, Assad recently remarked that efforts to foster talks have not produced "results worth mentioning." He stated that while he desires Turkish troop withdrawal from Syria, it is not a prerequisite for negotiations. The Assad government seeks a timeline for such a withdrawal, while Ankara wants its concerns regarding the PKK militia addressed.

In his latest comments, Erdogan expressed hope that a meeting with Assad could initiate a new era in bilateral relations, stating: "Millions of people outside Syria are waiting to return to their homeland."

Turkey is now home to over three million Syrian refugees, making it one of the largest refugee-hosting countries globally. Despite this, Syrians in Turkey often face prejudice and sporadic violence, turning the issue of refugee repatriation into a contentious political topic. Bahra pointed out that many Syrians currently in Turkey opposed Assad’s regime and hail from areas far beyond the Turkish-controlled north, complicating the potential for their return.

He noted that while Turks believe they could potentially compel a limited number of refugees to return, coercing all three million back to Syria is an unrealistic expectation. "They understand that achieving a resolution to this crisis requires political solutions," he concluded.