Philippines’ Marcos-Duterte Alliance Falls Apart – Reuters

By Karen Lema

MANILA – The alliance between Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and former President Rodrigo Duterte has quickly unravelled, each accusing the other of drug use. This break could jeopardize Marcos’s reform initiatives and lead to increased instability.

The political partnership that brought Marcos and Duterte’s daughter, Sara, to power in 2022 was expected to end eventually, but analysts are caught off guard by the speed of the fallout.

“This is a point of no return,” stated Jean Encinas-Franco, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, referring to the intensity of the exchanges between the two influential families.

Sebastian Duterte, the former president’s son and current mayor of Davao city, has called for Marcos’s resignation, criticizing his policies, particularly a pro-U.S. foreign policy he claims endangers Filipino lives.

“The opportunistic political alliance was not meant to last,” remarked Temario Rivera, chairman of the Center for People Empowerment in Governance think tank. “The break seems to be occurring quite early.”

Marcos attempted to downplay the tensions, asserting that the coalition remains intact. He expressed confidence in keeping Sara Duterte as education minister.

Political analysts warn that this rift could obstruct Marcos’s ambitious goals to boost the economy, generate employment, enhance infrastructure, and strengthen the military.

“A breakdown of the formal alliance risks creating new divisions within the military and poses significant governance and stability challenges,” Rivera explained.

The Marcos and Duterte families allied in 2022, with Sara Duterte running as Marcos’s vice-presidential candidate. This partnership allowed Marcos to leverage the Duterte family’s extensive support network, facilitating a comeback for the Marcos dynasty. Ferdinand Marcos Sr. had ruled for two decades before being ousted in 1986 during the “people power” uprising, amidst accusations of corruption involving over $10 billion.

Signs of strain in the Marcos-Duterte alliance appeared early on. Marcos shifted away from Duterte’s pro-China policy, opting instead for closer ties with the United States, allowing greater access to Philippine bases amid rising Chinese assertiveness in regional waters. He also referenced a 2016 arbitral ruling that supported Manila’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, a matter Duterte had largely ignored.

Additionally, Marcos sought to revive peace talks with communist rebels that Duterte had abandoned, a move that Sara Duterte condemned as “an agreement with the devil.”

The relationship took a significant hit last November when Marcos contemplated rejoining the International Criminal Court, from which Duterte had withdrawn in 2018 after the ICC announced an investigation into a controversial anti-drug campaign resulting in thousands of deaths.

Marcos has voiced support for modifying the 1987 constitution to attract investments, but Duterte has accused him of using this initiative to consolidate power. Critics argue that proposed changes aim to alter the political structure and eliminate term limits, including those for the presidency, which is currently restricted to a single six-year term. Duterte has cautioned that Marcos’s attempts to amend the post-revolution constitution could lead to his downfall, similar to his father’s fate.

The alliance officially fractured on Sunday when Duterte labeled Marcos a “drug addict” during a rally opposing charter change that was attended by his daughter. In retaliation, Marcos suggested that Duterte’s past use of fentanyl might impair his judgment.

Analysts believe this public dispute may be linked to the 2028 presidential race, in which Sara Duterte is anticipated to be a strong candidate. A recent poll indicated she is the frontrunner for that election.

“This year is likely to see open warfare,” predicted Ronald Llamas, a seasoned political analyst and former presidential advisor.

The Philippines will hold mid-term elections in 2025 to select half of the Senate, along with members of the House of Representatives and local officials. If the candidates Marcos supports perform poorly, or if his political base shifts loyalties, his legislative agenda could face significant challenges.