Factbox: Where Abortion Is on the Ballot in the 2024 US Elections

By Joseph Ax

Abortion is set to be a key issue on the ballot in at least nine U.S. states during the upcoming election on November 5. These states include pivotal battlegrounds that are likely to influence both the presidential race and the battle for congressional control.

Democrats, spearheaded by Vice President Kamala Harris, aim to rally support for the abortion measures. They hope to energize both left-leaning and independent voters as Harris prepares to face former Republican President Donald Trump in the election.

States where voters will cast their ballots on abortion rights include Arizona and Nevada. Both states are considered critical to the presidential race, and they also feature significant Senate contests which could determine which party holds the majority in that chamber.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling that removed a nationwide right to abortion, Republicans have grappled with the fallout. The anger sparked by this decision is often cited as a factor that hindered Republican successes in the 2022 midterm elections, while simultaneously boosting the performance of Democrats in various state races in Kentucky and Virginia.

In the preceding seven statewide ballot measures related to abortion after the court’s ruling, voters have chosen to protect or expand abortion access, even in traditionally conservative states like Ohio, Kentucky, and Kansas.

The following states will have abortion-related measures on the ballot on November 5, alongside other states where the issue might still reach voters.

Arizona
Arizona election officials have greenlit a measure that aims to amend the state constitution to secure abortion rights up until fetal viability, typically around 23 or 24 weeks. A coalition of reproductive rights advocates known as Arizona for Abortion Access submitted over 823,000 signatures for the initiative, surpassing the required threshold of approximately 384,000. Recently, the Arizona Supreme Court dismissed an attempt by an anti-abortion group to block the measure. In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden narrowly won Arizona, and polling indicates a close contest between Harris and Trump this year. The Senate race in Arizona, featuring Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake, is one of the races expected to influence control of the Senate. Arizona currently enforces a 15-week abortion ban established by Republican lawmakers following the Supreme Court’s decision.

Florida
The Florida Supreme Court has approved a ballot measure supported by reproductive rights groups that seeks to amend the state constitution to safeguard abortion access. However, the court also upheld the state’s existing 15-week abortion limit, which will be further tightened to a six-week ban. To pass a constitutional amendment in Florida, at least 60% of voters must approve it, a benchmark that has not been met by any statewide abortion measure in the past. Historically a swing state, Florida has leaned Republican in recent elections, but Democrats believe they have a chance to reclaim it in November.

Nevada
Nevada’s officials have approved a referendum that aims to amend the state constitution to protect abortion rights, following the submission of sufficient valid signatures by reproductive rights groups. While current law offers similar protections, a constitutional amendment would make it more difficult to reverse these rights. Voters would need to endorse the measure twice, once this year and again in 2026. Nevada is anticipated to be a battleground for the presidential race, and the closely watched Senate race features incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen against Republican challenger Sam Brown.

Other States
In Missouri and South Dakota, where abortion bans are nearly absolute, voters will consider adding abortion rights to their state constitutions. Missouri’s Supreme Court ruled on September 10 that an abortion rights measure will appear on the ballot after overturning a lower court’s decision to exclude it. In South Dakota, enough signatures were validated to place the measure on the ballot, though a lawsuit challenges this process.

Nebraska voters will decide between two opposing measures: one seeking to enshrine the right to an abortion and another that would reinforce the current 12-week ban with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother. If both measures pass, the one with the most votes will take precedence.

Montana will also see a ballot measure aimed at securing abortion rights after advocates submitted nearly double the required signatures. Colorado will present a constitutional amendment that necessitates 55% approval to pass. Though both states currently permit abortions, advocates argue that constitutional protections would prevent future rollbacks by lawmakers or courts. Montana, while not a presidential battleground, has a competitive Senate race this year between Democratic incumbent Jon Tester and Republican contender Tim Sheehy.

In Arkansas, where abortion is strictly prohibited, election officials rejected petitions for an abortion rights measure due to missing paperwork, a decision later upheld by the state’s Supreme Court.

Additionally, lawmakers have approved abortion-related amendments for the ballots in New York and Maryland, where abortion is already legal. These referendums aim to further secure protections in the state constitutions.