Analysis: Putin Draws a Nuclear Red Line for the West

By Mark Trevelyan and Andrew Osborn

LONDON – President Vladimir Putin has established a "red line" for the United States and its allies, indicating that Russia may respond with nuclear weapons if they permit Ukraine to use long-range Western missiles to strike deep within Russian territory.

This development raises significant questions in the West: Is Putin serious about his threat?

The answer to this question is crucial for the future trajectory of the war. Should Putin be bluffing, as Ukraine and some of its proponents suspect, the West may feel emboldened to reinforce military support for Ukraine despite Moscow’s warnings. Conversely, if he is sincere in his threats, there’s a risk—often mentioned by both Moscow and acknowledged by Washington—that the conflict could escalate into a wider war.

Recently, Putin broadened the scenarios which could lead to nuclear action. He stated that Russia might use nuclear weapons in response to significant cross-border conventional attacks involving aircraft, missiles, or drones. He also noted that any nuclear power supporting a nation attacking Russia would be considered a participant in that aggression.

This warning is particularly pertinent if the West allows Ukraine to take long-range missile strikes against Russian territory, supported by Western satellite and targeting assistance, which Putin has said is necessary for such actions.

Experts have interpreted Putin’s announcement as a clear warning: "Don’t misjudge—these circumstances could lead to nuclear conflict," remarked Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet and Russian diplomat.

Bahram Ghiassee, a nuclear analyst based in London, suggested that the timing of Putin’s statements is closely tied to Ukraine’s push for long-range weapons, especially with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy engaging with U.S. President Joe Biden this week.

Response from Kyiv was immediate, with Zelenskiy’s chief of staff accusing Putin of engaging in "nuclear blackmail." Anton Gerashchenko, a former adviser to Ukraine’s internal affairs minister, characterized it as yet another display of Putin’s weakness, asserting that he would not risk using nuclear weapons, as it would lead to his complete isolation.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticized Putin’s warnings as irresponsible and poorly timed, noting this is not the first instance of Putin "rattling the nuclear saber."

Analyst Andreas Umland observed that Putin seems to be engaging in psychological manipulation rather than expressing genuine intent. "This is a public relations strategy from the Kremlin intended to instill fear in leaders and citizens of countries supporting Ukraine," he commented.

Defence expert Fabian Hoffmann acknowledged the seriousness of Putin’s comments but emphasized the importance of avoiding overreactions. He urged that concerns should only heighten if Russia signals concrete preparations for nuclear deployment.

Despite Putin’s more explicit threats regarding nuclear use, some of his hawkish commentators’ demands for aggressive action remain unaddressed. Notably, Sergei Karaganov has suggested a limited nuclear strike in Europe to demonstrate the seriousness of Russia’s deterrent.

In practical terms, Russia’s adjustments to its nuclear posture extend its deterrent umbrella to Belarus, a key ally. The adjustments lower the threshold for nuclear use, suggesting it could occur in response to any conventional strike viewed as a "critical threat."

Putin made his statements in a brief video, addressing a security council focused on nuclear deterrence. He highlighted that the use of nuclear weapons remains a last resort, and Russia has historically approached such issues judiciously.

The core audience for these messages were leaders in Kyiv, Washington, and London. Political consultant Yevgeny Minchenko indicated that the revised doctrine serves as a blunt warning against further escalation from Ukraine and its allies.

Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov pointed out that the modifications to nuclear doctrine potentially enable Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in certain scenarios, especially against Ukraine.

Military analyst Igor Korotchenko argued that these changes were necessary due to the West’s apparent disregard for earlier warnings from Russia. He claimed the West does not acknowledge Russia’s "red lines," believing that actions supporting Ukraine won’t provoke nuclear retaliation.

Vladimir Avatkov, another close advisor to Putin, noted that the announcement allows Russia to preemptively counter any Western decisions regarding missile provisions for Ukraine.

The modifications were met with enthusiasm from Russian nationalists and war bloggers, fueling discussions about what could trigger nuclear responses. Dmitry Medvedev, a senior Russian official, warned that Putin’s words should serve as a stark reminder to Ukraine and the West of the potential consequences of their actions.

Sokov expressed frustration over the West’s apparent dismissal of Russia’s numerous nuclear warnings, stating that past Russian military exercises simulating tactical nuclear missile launches received little attention in Western discourse.

He cautioned that there is a dangerous normalization of rhetoric dismissing Russia’s "red lines," particularly regarding military aid to Ukraine. Given that no actual Russian red lines have been crossed yet, he expressed concern about the unpredictability of potential reactions should provocations continue.