Analysis: France’s New Government is Fragile, but Don’t Write It Off Just Yet, by Reuters

By Elizabeth Pineau and Michel Rose

PARIS – It may be a contentious situation, but this government might just endure.

Despite appearing to be one of the most unstable administrations in recent French history—losing support from the left and relying on far-right allies—Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s fragile minority government could persist longer than many anticipate, according to lawmakers and analysts.

The National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen, which has the potential to unite with other dissatisfied factions to bring down the government, is hesitant to create an even bigger political crisis that could jeopardize its prospects for the 2027 presidential election. Additionally, the party is facing an upcoming corruption trial set to begin in Paris.

In a bid to ease tensions with Le Pen and limit the far-right’s influence over his own team, Barnier has appointed ministers who resonate with RN’s criticisms regarding immigration and crime. This has muted some of the party’s grievances.

Meanwhile, the left—still frustrated after winning the most seats in the recent legislative elections yet seeing its candidate sidelined from the role of prime minister—plans to initiate no-confidence motions against the government. However, lacking the necessary numbers, these threats may not have significant impact.

Despite the chaotic beginning following President Macron’s call for a snap election, a certain level of fragile stability seems to have emerged.

"The French dislike disorder," remarked Laurent Jacobelli, a senior RN lawmaker and party spokesperson. "We are pragmatic and not here to create chaos."

Pouria Amirshahi, a lawmaker from the Green Party and a member of the leftist alliance that won the most seats, suggested that the government’s stability comes from the left’s resignation to the current political reality and the RN’s lack of immediate desire to destabilize the government.

"They want to prepare for governance," he noted, adding that the upcoming trial will likely hinder Le Pen’s aspirations for upheaval.

On Monday, Le Pen, her party, and 26 other RN members will stand trial in a Paris court on charges of embezzling European Parliament funds. Both Le Pen and the RN have denied any wrongdoing. If convicted, they could face a decade in prison, hefty fines, and potential disqualification from holding office for five years. The trial is expected to last seven weeks.

Jacobelli maintained a calm demeanor regarding potential impacts from the trial but expressed confidence in the party’s outcome.

"This will inevitably be discussed at a time when we’d prefer focusing on the French people’s issues and future," he stated.

LOOKING AHEAD

The forthcoming 2025 budget bill, which must be delivered to lawmakers by mid-October, will serve as the first significant test for Barnier’s government. The budget poses considerable challenges, as new Finance Minister Antoine Armand and Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin are tasked with locating significant spending cuts and tax increases to address a larger-than-anticipated deficit.

While discussions may prove contentious, particularly as France faces scrutiny from the EU and bond markets, experts suggest that the RN has little incentive to obstruct the budget process.

"They are aiming for respectability; thus, participating in the budget-making process fits their electoral strategy," noted Christopher Dembik, an economist. He believes the government could survive at least until next summer.

Barnier evidently understands that, whether he prefers it or not, he requires the RN’s support to remain in power.

This dependency became evident this week after Armand sparked Le Pen’s anger by suggesting the RN would be excluded from budget talks. Barnier had to reach out to Le Pen to reassure her of the RN’s participation, and sources indicated that Armand was compelled to invite them to discussions.

On Wednesday, right-wing Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau announced he would explore strengthening immigration laws following the alleged murder of a 19-year-old girl by a Moroccan migrant.

This shift is causing apprehension among centrist lawmakers, who, despite being part of Barnier’s government, have been cautioned against upsetting their far-right allies.

"It’s shocking that the prime minister feels the need to apologize to Le Pen because of comments from my economy minister," said Erwan Balanant, a member of the centrist MoDem party.

Following a setback in the recent elections, Macron holds a diminished role and has little influence over the daily political dynamics in France.

This leaves Barnier’s government, with its surprising allies, to navigate the turbulent waters ahead.

"I can’t predict how long this government will last," Balanant said, "but we must move forward and prepare a budget, so collaboration is essential."