54% of Users Notice Job Listings Missing on Friday

According to a recent survey conducted on X (formerly Twitter), 54% of users believe that U.S. jobs data will fall short of expectations this Friday. The poll gathered responses from 2,186 individuals, revealing that when asked whether the jobs report will surpass or miss the consensus estimate of 164,000 jobs, 54% anticipated a miss, while 46% expected a beat.

A weaker jobs report could provide the Federal Reserve with justification for a more significant rate reduction of 50 basis points, rather than the previously considered 25 basis points. Recent data from the CME Group indicates a notable increase in the likelihood of a larger rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in September.

As highlighted in the latest Sevens Report, this could mark a turning point, where a “Too Cold” jobs report may pose a greater risk to stocks than in recent years. The implications of the jobs data on economic growth are now seen as more critical to investors than simply the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions.

The report further explains that investors generally prefer steady and consistent rate cuts alongside stable economic growth, rather than aggressive cuts that may signal economic turmoil. Consequently, Friday’s jobs report could either alleviate or heighten concerns about the Federal Reserve’s position on rate adjustments.

In contrast, Bank of America provided a forecast anticipating solid jobs growth for August, projecting an increase of 200,000 nonfarm payrolls, following a rise of 114,000 in July. They expect public sector hiring to contribute an additional 30,000 jobs, driven mainly by local employment, while private payrolls are predicted to increase by 170,000. The bank also forecasts robust hiring in the education and healthcare sectors.

Additionally, it is expected that the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate will each decline by one-tenth, bringing them down to 4.2% and 62.6%, respectively. Average hourly earnings and average weekly hours are also projected to see modest increases of 0.3% month-over-month and 34.3 hours, respectively.