Explainer: What’s Behind the War Driving Sudan to Famine? By Reuters

By Aidan Lewis

A conflict in Sudan that began in April 2023 has triggered severe ethnic violence, creating the largest internal displacement crisis globally, and has pushed at least one area in Darfur into famine.

WHAT TRIGGERED THE VIOLENCE?

Tensions had been escalating for months prior to the outbreak of fighting on April 15, 2023, between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the capital, Khartoum.

The army and RSF shared a tenuous partnership following a coup in October 2021, which halted the transition from the rule of Islamist autocrat Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted in 2019. Clashes arose over an internationally supported plan aimed at launching a new transition involving civilian parties, which required the army and RSF to relinquish some powers. Key points of contention included the timeline for integrating the RSF into the regular armed forces, the command structure between army and RSF leaders, and the issue of civilian oversight.

Additionally, both factions were vying to maintain control over extensive business interests.

WHO ARE THE MAIN PLAYERS?

The primary figures in this power struggle include General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the army head and leader of Sudan’s ruling council since 2019, and his former deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who leads the RSF.

Hemedti has gained wealth through gold mining and other ventures and has established a power base in the western region of Darfur. The RSF originated from militias that fought alongside government troops in a brutal conflict against rebels that escalated after 2003. Analysts suggest Burhan’s leadership is becoming more tenuous due to the influence of Islamist loyalists and military veterans in the army since the 2021 coup.

The RSF claims it is fighting to eliminate remnants of Bashir’s regime, while the army insists it is defending the state against "criminal" rebels. Witnesses report that the RSF and its allies have committed serious violations, including ethnically targeted killings and looting, while there are accusations against the army for indiscriminate shelling and airstrikes, both sides denying such claims.

WHO’S WINNING?

Initially, Sudan’s army boasted superior resources, including air capability, but the RSF, which became officially recognized in 2017, has transformed into a well-equipped force. In the early days of the conflict, RSF units quickly maneuvered throughout the capital. By the end of 2023, the RSF had solidified its control over Darfur and expanded into El Gezira state, a critical agricultural region south of Khartoum.

The army managed to regain some ground in March in Omdurman, one of the three cities encompassing greater Khartoum, but the RSF subsequently advanced into Sennar, White Nile, and Gedaref states. Currently, fighting intensifies around the army bastion of al-Fashir in North Darfur, while the army is attempting to reclaim territory within the capital.

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

The uprising that led to Bashir’s ousting fueled hopes that Sudan, home to approximately 50 million people, could emerge from years of dictatorship, conflict, and economic isolation. However, over 17 months of warfare have inflicted extensive damage on the country’s infrastructure, displaced more than 10 million people, and left half the population facing acute hunger. In August, experts announced an active famine in one area of Darfur, with risks of famine in 13 additional areas.

Widespread looting of homes, offices, and banks has occurred, healthcare facilities are out of commission, and both trade and agriculture have been severely disrupted. The death toll reaches into the tens of thousands, and both sides are accused of war crimes. Aid agencies report that ongoing violence, theft, and bureaucratic hurdles have obstructed delivery of assistance.

Internal political and ethnic rivalries raise concerns that Sudan, Africa’s third-largest country by area, could fragment, destabilizing a region that borders the Sahel, the Red Sea, and the Horn of Africa. Hundreds of thousands of people have sought refuge in neighboring countries, including Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan, with fewer fleeing to Ethiopia and the Central African Republic.

Notably, both factions are utilizing gold, Sudan’s most valuable resource, to finance their military campaigns.

WHAT’S THE ROLE OF FOREIGN STATES?

This conflict has become a focal point for international competition for influence among various powers, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and Russia. Historically, Gulf states have sought investments in agriculture and ports, while Russia has expressed interest in establishing a naval base along Sudan’s coastline.

The UAE has reportedly supplied the RSF with arms, while there are claims that Iran has provided military support to the army. Egypt has strong ties with Burhan and the army due to President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s background as a former army chief.

Western nations, including the United States, initially supported Sudan’s transitional government following Bashir’s ousting, but focus on Sudan has diminished due to ongoing conflicts in other global hotspots.

WHAT EFFORTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO END THE WAR?

Last year, Saudi Arabia and the United States facilitated discussions in Jeddah between representatives of both factions, but the ceasefires established there failed to hold, and the dialogue did not progress. Other diplomatic initiatives have been attempted by regional organizations and Egypt, but there are concerns about competing approaches and rivalries among these efforts.

In August, American-led talks took place in Switzerland, but they faltered due to the army’s absence. The RSF has expressed willingness to negotiate a ceasefire, even while continuing its attacks on al-Fashir, while the army holds that peace is contingent upon the RSF disarming and withdrawing.