OpenAI Projects $11.6 Billion Revenue Next Year, Provides Thrive Opportunity for Investment Again in 2025, Reports Reuters

By Krystal Hu and Kenrick Cai

Thrive Capital is set to invest over $1 billion in OpenAI’s current fundraising round of $6.5 billion, along with a unique opportunity not available to other investors: the chance to invest an additional $1 billion next year at the same valuation, contingent on the AI company’s ability to meet a specific revenue target, insiders reported on Friday.

According to sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity, OpenAI anticipates its revenue to surge to $11.6 billion next year, a significant increase from an estimated $3.7 billion in 2024. However, the company expects losses could reach as high as $5 billion this year, primarily due to its hefty expenses in computing power, which could vary.

This funding round, structured as convertible debt, is expected to conclude by the end of next week and could assign OpenAI a valuation of $150 billion, solidifying its position as one of the most valuable private companies globally.

Achieving this valuation hinges on successfully executing a complex restructuring process to transfer control from its non-profit board and eliminate limits on investor return on investment, a plan previously covered by media reports. A specific timeline for finalizing this conversion remains unclear.

Thrive Capital, which has led OpenAI’s previous funding efforts, is contributing $1.2 billion from both its own fund and a dedicated vehicle for smaller investors. Other contributors to the current round include major companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and Khosla Ventures.

Sources indicated that the other investors do not have the same opportunity for future investments at the current valuation, which has rapidly escalated. If OpenAI’s valuation continues to climb, Thrive Capital could potentially increase its ownership next year at a more favorable price.

The precise revenue target tied to Thrive’s option was not disclosed. Both Thrive and OpenAI have chosen not to comment on the current developments.

OpenAI’s revenue forecast significantly exceeds CEO Sam Altman’s earlier estimate of $1 billion for this year. The primary revenue streams consist of sales of its services to businesses and subscriptions for its chatbot.

OpenAI’s flagship product, ChatGPT, is projected to generate $2.7 billion this year, up from $700 million in 2023. The subscription service, which charges users $20 per month, currently has around 10 million paying customers.

Details regarding Thrive’s additional investment option and financials were initially reported by a prominent media outlet on Friday.