The Rise and Fall of Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau’s Political Fortunes

Trudeau’s Political Future in Jeopardy as Support Withdrawn

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political future appears increasingly uncertain after the minor party that has supported his Liberal minority government retracted its automatic backing on Wednesday.

This development adds to a series of challenges and controversies that have negatively impacted Trudeau’s popularity. Recent polls indicate that his Liberal Party would face significant defeat against the official opposition Conservatives in the next election, which is scheduled for no later than October 2025. The New Democratic Party’s withdrawal from their agreement with the Liberals raises the possibility of an earlier election.

Here’s a timeline of key events highlighting Trudeau’s journey in Canadian federal politics:

OCTOBER 2013 – BECOMES LEADER OF THE LIBERAL PARTY

Trudeau, son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, won the leadership of the Liberal Party at a time when it was struggling, having been out of power for over seven years and reduced to third place in the House of Commons in 2011.

OCTOBER 2015 – WINS FEDERAL ELECTION

Trudeau’s Liberals captured a majority of seats in the federal election, campaigning on a platform of change and hope, and defeating the Conservatives. This marked a historic moment as it was the first time a third-placed party had won a federal election in Canada.

DECEMBER 2017 – CONFLICT OF INTEREST FINDING

The ethics commissioner ruled that Trudeau had violated conflict of interest rules by accepting gifts and vacations from the Aga Khan in 2016, marking the first time a sitting prime minister had been found guilty of such a breach.

FEBRUARY 2019 – SNC-LAVALIN SCANDAL

Former Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould alleged that government officials pressured her to assist SNC-Lavalin in avoiding prosecution. The fallout led to the resignations of several key officials, including Wilson-Raybould herself. The controversy undermined Trudeau’s stance as a feminist ally. The ethics commissioner later found that Trudeau and his officials had breached ethical standards; while he acknowledged his responsibility, he refused to apologize.

SEPTEMBER 2019 – BLACKFACE CONTROVERSY

Just as the 2019 election campaign began, images surfaced of Trudeau in blackface from his younger years. In light of his advocacy for multiculturalism, he issued an apology, attributing his actions to a “blind spot.”

OCTOBER 2019 – LIBERALS REDUCED TO MINORITY

In the federal election held on October 21, 2019, the Liberals lost their majority status in the House of Commons, forcing them to seek cooperation from opposition parties to govern.

AUGUST 2020 – FINANCE MINISTER RESIGNS

Finance Minister Bill Morneau stepped down amid disagreements with Trudeau regarding pandemic recovery funding and amid scrutiny of his connections to a charity involved in a student grant program.

SEPTEMBER 2021 – ANOTHER FAILED MAJORITY BID

Trudeau called a snap election on September 20, 2021, aiming to regain a parliamentary majority due to his government’s pandemic response. However, he was once again returned to power with a minority government.

JULY 2023 – DECLINE IN POPULARITY

Polls indicated that the Liberal Party was lagging increasingly behind the Conservatives, with a widening gap in voter support suggesting a likely defeat in the upcoming 2025 election.

JUNE 2024 – SIGNIFICANT DEFEAT IN SPECIAL ELECTION

In a disturbing sign of diminishing support, the Liberals lost a secure seat in a special election in Toronto. Trudeau signaled his intention to remain in office despite renewed speculation over his leadership.

SEPTEMBER 2024 – SUPPORT FROM ALLY WITHDRAWN

The New Democratic Party, which had been pivotal in sustaining Trudeau’s government through a cooperative agreement focused on social spending, announced its withdrawal of automatic support. This shift compels Trudeau to forge new alliances to maintain governance.