Hezbollah Confronts Future Amid Beirut Strikes – Reuters

By Timour Azhari and Samia Nakhoul

BEIRUT – Killing or incapacitating Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah for 32 years, would significantly impact the Iran-backed group, analysts suggested on Friday, following reports that Israel targeted him in an airstrike.

A Hezbollah insider confirmed that Nasrallah survived the attack on the southern suburbs of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold. Additionally, a senior Iranian security official indicated that Tehran was verifying Nasrallah’s condition.

Replacing Nasrallah has become more challenging than ever due to recent Israeli strikes that have eliminated top Hezbollah commanders, raising concerns about the organization’s internal security.

Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy research director at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, remarked, "The whole landscape would change dramatically." He noted that Nasrallah has been the cohesive force within an expanding organization.

Hezbollah, established by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in the early 1980s to fight Israel, operates as a major social, religious, and political movement for Lebanese Shi’ite Muslims, with Nasrallah at its core. "He has become a legendary figure for the Lebanese Shia," Hage Ali added.

Nasrallah assumed leadership of Hezbollah following the assassination of his predecessor and has lived under constant threat since then. A European diplomat pointed out, "You kill one, they get a new one."

Despite a series of Israeli successes against Hezbollah, Nasrallah’s potential death would further complicate the already tense situation for the group. Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at the Chatham House policy institute in London, stated that while Hezbollah would not collapse without Nasrallah, his death would deal a significant blow to the group’s morale and emphasize Israel’s military superiority.

The effect of Nasrallah’s demise on Hezbollah’s military capacity remains uncertain. The two parties have engaged in escalating confrontations along their shared border over the past year, driven by the situation in Gaza. Khatib noted, "Israel will want to leverage this pressure to establish a new status quo for its northern security, but that won’t happen swiftly, even if Nasrallah is eliminated."

In response to the Beirut strike, Hezbollah launched several rocket attacks on Israel, aiming to demonstrate its continued operational capability after Israel claimed it targeted Hezbollah’s command center. Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, remarked, "Israel has declared all-out war and is seizing the opportunity to dismantle Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure."

He added, "They are undermining Hezbollah’s power. It’s unnecessary to kill every member; if you dismantle their combat structure and compel them to surrender, they lose credibility."

SUCCESSORS

Any new leader must gain acceptance within Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as from its backers in Iran, explained Philip Smyth, an authority on Shi’ite militias. The individual most seen as Nasrallah’s potential successor, Hashem Safieddine, was also confirmed to be alive after the attack. A cousin of Nasrallah, Safieddine supervises Hezbollah’s political affairs and is a member of the group’s Jihad Council.

Designated a terrorist by the U.S. State Department in 2017, Safieddine threatened significant retaliation against Israel after the assassination of another Hezbollah commander, stating, "Let (the enemy) prepare himself to cry and wail."

Smyth noted that Nasrallah has groomed Safieddine for leadership roles within various councils in Hezbollah. He emphasized that Safieddine’s familial connection, resemblance to Nasrallah, and status as a descendant of Muhammad would all work in his favor.