Indonesia’s Competitive and Controversial Presidential Race May Be Decided in West Java

By Randy Fabi and Kanupriya Kapoor

TASIKMALAYA, Indonesia – Indonesia’s most competitive presidential election to date may be decided on Wednesday in the rice fields and mosques of West Java, the country’s most populous province.

Former special forces chief Prabowo Subianto and Jakarta Governor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo are in a tight race, with opinion polls showing them closely matched. This uncertainty is creating anxiety in Southeast Asia’s largest economy as markets brace for the outcome.

The election presents Indonesian voters, numbering 190 million, with a distinct choice: the relatively inexperienced Jokowi, who is seen as untainted by corruption, or Prabowo, a strong nationalist with military leadership experience but facing longstanding allegations of army brutality, which he denies.

"The young democracy of Indonesia is about to face a tough maturity test," noted Wellian Wiranto, an economist at a major bank.

This election marks a significant milestone as it is the first time in Indonesia’s third-largest democracy that a directly elected president will transfer power to another. The outgoing president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is stepping down after completing two terms, and has faced criticism for his last four years in office.

Voting will begin in the eastern islands at 0700 BST and will conclude two time zones away in the populous west, with early counts likely to provide quick insights into the results.

If Prabowo is victorious, there are concerns that his policies could undermine the markets through protectionist measures across financial and agricultural sectors, along with significant state-funded spending. Since Jokowi’s earlier lead in the polls began to diminish in May, stocks and the rupiah have fallen approximately 4 percent.

In a scenario where the results are inconclusive, the markets could react even more negatively, especially if legal disputes and protests arise, leading to extended uncertainty.

MAIN BATTLEGROUND

West Java, which is roughly the size of the Netherlands but has nearly three times its population, is viewed as the crucial battleground. Here, Prabowo has claimed a slight lead over Jokowi, aided by a smear campaign casting doubts on the Jakarta Governor’s background and religious beliefs.

According to Fitri Hari, a researcher at a polling firm, the implications of this campaign have been profound, particularly in a country where around 95 percent of the population is native Indonesian and home to the world’s largest Muslim community.

In response to these attacks, Jokowi is expected to undertake a minor pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia just before the elections, seeking to reinforce his Islamic credentials during the campaigning blackout period.

Jokowi had previously enjoyed a significant lead of up to 30 percentage points in national opinion polls, which has since diminished. While Prabowo has not publicly addressed Jokowi’s ethnic background or faith, he appears to have organized his campaign more effectively.

West Java, accounting for about 20 percent of the national vote, houses influential conservative Muslim groups. Some Islamic parties endorsing Prabowo exert considerable influence in the region.

The province has historical ties to fundamentalist religious groups, making it a focal point for the election’s dynamics.

"Jokowi is more of a manager, focused on practical issues. The country needs a visionary leader, and I believe that’s Prabowo," shared Yanti, a resident of Cirebon.

As the election nears, Jokowi has been actively engaging with local communities, visiting mosques and meeting farmers to counter pre-vote attacks on his character, while Prabowo has similarly emphasized meeting with voters in this key province.

Without the ability to campaign publicly in the days leading up to the election, both candidates are relying on religious leaders to galvanize support through sermons targeting undecided voters.

In Tasikmalaya, respected religious figure Bunyamin Ruchiyat indicated his intent to subtly guide his followers toward a choice, praising Jokowi for his honesty and humility.

(Reporting by Randy Fabi and Dennys Kapa in TASIKMALAYA; Kanupriya Kapoor in CIREBON; and Aubrey Belford in BANGKOK; Editing by Mark Bendeich)