Economic Downturn Could Enhance Trump’s Chances of Election Victory – BCA Research

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is slightly favored to win the upcoming election in November, but analysts from BCA Research suggest that her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, could improve his chances if economic activity declines significantly before the election.

In their analysis, BCA Research reports that Harris has a 56% chance of winning, with forecasts indicating she may secure 303 of the available 538 Electoral College votes. To win the presidency, a candidate needs a majority of at least 270 Electoral College votes, and current polling indicates that the outcome will likely hinge on a few key swing states.

Over the past month, Harris’ odds have strengthened in 21 states, including the pivotal battleground of Arizona. However, the analysts pointed out that her chances in the crucial swing state of Michigan have diminished since August. They observed that, while Arizona’s economy is growing at a rate faster than the national average, Michigan is experiencing economic contraction.

Additionally, other economic indicators monitored by BCA Research have shown a slowdown in swing states like Wisconsin, Georgia, and Nevada. This decline in economic momentum in these competitive regions suggests that the presidential race is likely to be “excruciatingly close” as Election Day approaches.

The analysts noted that the Democrats are under increasing pressure from economic conditions. They emphasized the importance of monitoring whether the recent significant 50-basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve can effectively slow down a rapid economic downturn. Thus far, the rate cut has provided a boost to the stock market, generating favorable sentiment for the Democratic party. However, the situation could shift in October.

If the economic situation worsens despite the recent rate reduction, analysts cautioned that Republicans could make a strong comeback by November.