Analysis: Argentina’s Fragmented Peronists Seek Path Back to Political Relevance

By Nicolás Misculin and Lucinda Elliott

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Following a significant electoral defeat last year, Argentina’s Peronists are working to develop a cohesive message and leadership to counter libertarian President Javier Milei. They are focusing on criticizing his spending cuts and highlighting local initiatives, but have yet to make a substantial impact.

Milei, known for his bold personality and commitment to austerity measures aimed at stabilizing Argentina’s fragile economy, disrupted the political landscape when he took office last December, effectively ending the era of left-leaning Peronists, who have played a pivotal role in national politics since the late 1940s.

As the primary opposition party in Congress, the Peronists are eager to regain the trust of the public after a tenure marked by economic instability, soaring inflation, and increasing international isolation. Despite Milei’s drastic reductions in government spending and the challenges of rising poverty and a deepening recession, he continues to enjoy a solid level of support.

Recent discussions with several Peronist insiders revealed a consensus that the broad movement needs to move away from "failed" past models and find a way to unify its diverse factions, from its hardline left to the more moderate center.

Peronist deputy Diego Giuliano, an ally of last year’s defeated candidate and former economy minister Sergio Massa, emphasized the necessity of presenting a clear alternative to Milei and charting a different course for the future.

With mid-term elections looming in about a year, the Peronists still lack a definitive leader. Massa carries the burden of the previous election loss along with the economic downturn he was unable to remedy. Meanwhile, former President Alberto Fernandez faces his own challenges, including allegations of violence and threats against his former partner, which he contests.

Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, a divisive figure within the Peronist movement and a former two-term president, remains influential but is grappling with ongoing legal issues stemming from a high-profile corruption case.

Many in the movement are now calling for a change in direction. One official from Buenos Aires expressed that ongoing scandals have been detrimental and acknowledged a need for renewal within Peronism to better serve society.

As for what this new direction would entail, opinions are varied. Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof has labeled Milei’s spending reductions as "cruel" and advocates for government investment in local projects. Activist lawyer Juan Grabois, a former candidate for the Peronist coalition, has highlighted the rising levels of poverty and hunger, condemning what he refers to as Milei’s "planned misery" initiatives.

Regional governors like Ricardo Quintela from La Rioja are exploring alternative measures such as a regional currency to foster local economic activity, while Cordoba Governor Martin Llaryora is promoting a message of moderation aimed at building cross-party alliances.

At present, the Peronists appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping that Milei will falter. However, his popularity has held steady, with surveys indicating continued strong approval ratings.

Government official Guillermo Justo Chaves, who served under Alberto Fernandez, noted the recent controversies have adversely affected moderate Peronists and underscored the need for "new faces."

Silvina Batakis, a minister in Buenos Aires province, remarked that the bloc is unlikely to rally behind a single leader ahead of the midterms, although she pointed to Kicillof as the most prominent candidate.

Political analyst Sergio Berensztein commented that many Peronist leaders are in a "survival strategy" mode and predicted a challenging period ahead for the movement.

Despite these challenges, Peronism has a history of reinvention and has withstood tough circumstances, including its opposition to conservative President Mauricio Macri from 2015 to 2019.

Agustin Rossi, a former Cabinet chief, expressed optimism that Peronism would enter the midterms with greater unity across most provinces, suggesting the movement is in a better position than in previous crises.