Analysis: Japan PM Candidate Koizumi Advocates Change, but Rivals May Influence US Diplomacy

By Tim Kelly

TOKYO (Reuters) – In the contest to become Japan’s next leader, the young candidate Shinjiro Koizumi has sought to portray himself as a candidate for change. However, his seasoned rivals, Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi, are the ones advocating policies that could create significant diplomatic shifts.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will choose a new leader on Friday, following Fumio Kishida’s tenure as prime minister. This leadership change comes at a crucial time for Japan as it aims to strengthen its alliance with long-time partner the United States while navigating a complex and often strained relationship with South Korea, all in the context of a more assertive China.

At 43 years old, Koizumi, a U.S.-educated member of a prominent LDP family, aspires to bring a generational transformation to Japanese politics while maintaining the established U.S. relationship that heavily influences Japan’s foreign policy.

Koizumi is locked in a competitive race against two well-experienced candidates who demonstrate a greater willingness to challenge U.S. positions: former Defense Minister Ishiba, 67, who is running for leadership for the fifth and what he claims will be his last time, and Takaichi, 63, the country’s economic security minister.

“Among the top three candidates, Koizumi might be the most favorable from a U.S. perspective,” noted Jeffrey Hornung, the Japan Lead for RAND National Security Research Division. “His youth and lack of governing experience suggest that he may prefer to proceed with existing successful strategies.”

In July, Koizumi showcased his close ties with Washington by spending a day surfing with the U.S. Ambassador to Japan. Analysts believe that while Koizumi would likely advocate for continuity in U.S.-Japan relations, Ishiba may pursue a more independent stance, and Takaichi might reignite historical tensions with South Korea.

Recent opinion polls indicate that Ishiba and Takaichi may have an edge among LDP members who will elect the new leader on Friday, making this one of the most unpredictable elections in decades due to diminishing faction influence and the presence of a record nine candidates.

The outcome of this election may be less influential on U.S.-Japan ties than the upcoming U.S. election in November, especially if Donald Trump secures a second term, which could pressure allies like Japan to increase contributions for U.S. defense or face potential trade tariffs.

A State Department representative expressed a desire to collaborate with Japan’s next leader. Meanwhile, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who has faced domestic backlash for pursuing closer security ties with Japan, expressed confidence that Kishida’s successor would work towards improving bilateral relations.

China’s foreign ministry also signaled a willingness to cooperate with a prime minister committed to fostering a “stable China-Japan relationship.”

None of the candidates are expected to diverge significantly from Kishida’s commitment to doubling Japan’s defense budget in response to China’s military assertiveness, nor will they likely retreat from the U.S. alliance fundamental to Japan’s security.

However, both Ishiba, a notable dissenting voice within the LDP, and Takaichi, known for her hardline conservatism, could complicate U.S. relations at a delicate historical moment.

Washington is currently revamping its military command structure in Japan for the first time in decades, expanding security cooperation into technology sectors, and encouraging improved ties between Japan and South Korea to effectively counter Chinese influence.

“Ishiba might challenge existing consensus on contentious points,” observed Nick Szechenyi, a Japan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

One of these points is the agreement that governs the status of U.S. bases in Japan, which hosts the largest overseas concentration of U.S. forces. On the campaign trail in Okinawa, Ishiba expressed a desire for greater oversight on the operations of these bases and to ensure that Japan has a role in discussions regarding potential nuclear weapons usage in Asia.

Ishiba has also proposed Japan take a leading role in forming a regional ‘Asian NATO,’ a suggestion dismissed as premature by U.S. officials. In a recent interview, he criticized U.S. resistance to a Japanese company’s acquisition of a U.S. firm, arguing that it unjustly painted Japan as a national security threat.

Kishida has not publicly addressed this issue, claiming it is up to the involved companies, while Koizumi has urged party members to refrain from remarks that could be viewed as interference in U.S. electoral matters.

Should Takaichi emerge victorious and become Japan’s first female prime minister, her intention to visit the contentious Yasukuni Shrine could strain efforts to reconcile relations with South Korea.

In 2013, Japanese leaders ceased visits to the shrine, which memorializes war dead including those convicted of war crimes, following criticism from the U.S. and condemnation from South Korea and others who view the site as symbolizing Japan’s wartime aggression.

“She represents hope for conservative members within the LDP,” stated Tetsuo Kotani, a senior fellow at a Tokyo-based think tank. “There remains considerable skepticism about the future of Japan-Korea relations.”