Analysis: Russia Unlikely to Deploy Nuclear Warheads in Space, According to Reuters

By Joey Roulette and Arshad Mohammed

WASHINGTON – U.S. intelligence suggests that Russia may be developing a space-based weapon that is more likely a nuclear-powered device aimed at disabling satellites rather than an explosive nuclear warhead designed to shoot them down, analysts stated on Thursday.

This intelligence was revealed following a statement from Representative Mike Turner, the Republican chair of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, who highlighted a "serious national security threat."

A source familiar with the matter informed that the U.S. has acquired new intelligence regarding Russian nuclear capabilities and efforts to create a space-based weapon, but these advancements do not represent an immediate threat to the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken supported this assertion, indicating that "this is not an active capability."

Experts monitoring Russia’s space initiatives believe the threat posed is not indicative of a nuclear warhead but instead involves a high-energy device utilizing nuclear power to execute various attacks on satellites. These attacks could include signal jamming, blinding optical sensors, or even causing electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) that would damage the electronics of all satellites within a specified orbital area.

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, stated, "It is more plausible that Russia is developing a system powered by a nuclear source with electronic warfare capabilities once in orbit than that they are pursuing a weapon carrying a nuclear explosive warhead."

A report from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency in 2023 indicated that Russia is working on a range of weapons designed to individually target satellites and may be developing more powerful systems that threaten all satellite structures.

In response to U.S. concerns about its new nuclear initiatives in space, the Kremlin dismissed these warnings as a "malicious fabrication."

The Nuclear Threat

Non-nuclear anti-satellite weapons have been in existence for years. In 2021, Russia followed in the footsteps of the U.S., China, and India by testing a destructive anti-satellite missile on one of its decommissioned satellites, creating thousands of pieces of debris in Earth’s orbit.

The detonation of a nuclear weapon in space would present entirely different implications. Brian Weeden, an analyst at the Secure World Foundation, stated that if Russia were to detonate a nuclear weapon in space, it would severely damage its credibility, impacting both military and commercial satellite operations. “The Russians have spent 40 years in the U.N. criticizing the U.S. for attempting to weaponize space and pledging that they would never do it,” Weeden remarked. "If they proceed with detonating a nuclear device in space, they would lose everything, including support from countries around Ukraine that are circumventing sanctions."

James Acton, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed out that placing a nuclear weapon in orbit would constitute a "blatant violation of the Outer Space Treaty," which prohibits the placement of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit.

Violation of this treaty could further hinder efforts to revive U.S.-Russia arms control, especially following Russia’s 2023 decision to suspend its participation in the New START treaty, which limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads each nation can deploy.

Analysts warn that the use of anti-satellite weapons could disrupt military and commercial communications, jeopardizing both military operations and global positioning systems (GPS) relied upon by services like ride-hailing and food delivery.

A former U.S. intelligence official explained, "The Russians believe we are incapacitated without access to our satellites, and there’s a degree of truth to that. Our reliance on satellite technology provides a significant advantage in possible confrontations but also represents a significant vulnerability."