Analysis: US Diplomacy in the Mideast Falters as Time Runs Out for Biden

By Matt Spetalnick, John Irish, and Humeyra Pamuk

WASHINGTON – Efforts by the U.S. to secure a ceasefire in Gaza have stagnated after nearly a year of ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Despite vigorous U.S.-led diplomatic efforts, the Israel-Hezbollah situation is at risk of escalating into a broader regional war.

As he approaches the end of his term in January, President Joe Biden is facing a string of crises in the Middle East that appear unlikely to be resolved, posing a significant challenge to his foreign policy legacy, according to analysts and foreign diplomats.

Throughout the past year, Biden has tried to balance support for Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon while also attempting to minimize civilian casualties and prevent a wider conflict in the region. However, his strategy has frequently been tested, most recently by Israel’s dismissal of a U.S.-supported proposal for a 21-day ceasefire along the Lebanon border, continuing military operations that have resulted in numerous Lebanese casualties.

"What we’re observing are the limits of U.S. power and influence in the Middle East," noted Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy national intelligence officer for the region.

A prominent indication of this struggle has been Biden’s hesitation to leverage U.S. influence—derived from being Israel’s primary arms supplier and diplomatic protector at the United Nations—to sway Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu toward U.S. positions.

The United States has been unable to successfully broker a deal to stop the fighting between Israel and Hamas or secure the release of hostages taken during Hamas’s October 7 attacks, which precipitated the current conflict in Gaza. Insiders indicate that no breakthroughs are on the horizon.

While U.S. officials often attribute failed negotiations to Hamas, they also acknowledge that Netanyahu’s fluctuating demands have been a complicating factor. During Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s multiple visits to the region since the beginning of October, he has found himself at odds with Israeli leaders on more than one occasion.

For example, while urging Israel to pause its offensive to allow aid into Gaza, Blinken was publicly countered by Netanyahu, who insisted operations would continue "full force."

U.S. credibility is increasingly at stake amid these challenges. Biden has garnered praise from Western allies for revitalizing key U.S. alliances, notably with NATO and important partners in Asia, especially compared to the prior administration’s stance on international relations.

This was evident in April when the Biden administration coordinated support from regional and European partners to counter an Iranian drone and missile threat against Israel.

However, some diplomats claim Biden’s approach to the volatile situation in the Middle East, particularly regarding the war in Gaza, has undermined U.S. credibility abroad. One official remarked that Biden’s commitment to unwavering support for Israel was a significant misstep that the U.S. has yet to recover from.

Concerns have been raised that U.S. diplomacy is not effectively deterring adversaries. The Iranian-backed Houthis have continued a campaign of missile attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, despite the deployment of additional military assets by the U.S. and its allies for protection.

Critics, such as Michael ‘Mick’ Mulroy, a former defense official, argue that Biden could have reacted more decisively to these proxy attacks. However, U.S. officials maintain that their diplomacy has played a crucial role and assert that military repositioning has helped avert a wider regional conflict thus far.

"Diplomacy requires arduous work, time, and consistent effort," noted U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield. "It has not failed."

Despite initial hopes for a significant foreign policy achievement in normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, those prospects have diminished since the onset of the current Gaza conflict.

At the U.N., there are growing signs of impatience toward U.S. diplomatic efforts. Jordan’s Foreign Minister recently described a year of failures in attempts to quell violence in the region, highlighting that without accountability for the Israeli government, there would be little regard for international law.

Former intelligence official Panikoff encapsulated the Biden administration’s predicament: “Plan A hasn’t worked for months. So where’s Plan B?”

With Israel threatening further military action in Lebanon and insisting on maintaining pressure on Hezbollah until Israeli evacuees can return home, the situation could worsen.

The trajectory of the conflict holds not just implications for Biden’s legacy but may also influence the future of Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, as some progressive Democrats express discontent with unyielding U.S. support for Israel.

It remains uncertain whether Netanyahu will heed Biden’s calls for restraint in Lebanon. Analysts suggest that while Biden cannot be criticized for his ongoing efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East during his final months in office, his successor will likely inherit the unresolved crises.