Analysis: West Africa Emerges as Global Terrorism Hotspot Amid Western Forces’ Withdrawal

By David Lewis, Jessica Donati, and Kaylee Kang

DAKAR – Weeks after infiltrating Mali’s capital unnoticed, armed extremists launched a surprise attack just before dawn prayers, targeting an elite police training academy, killing numerous students, and igniting the presidential jet at the airport. This incident on September 17 marked the most audacious assault on a capital city in the Sahel region since 2016.

The attack underscored the capability of jihadist groups linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State, which have primarily conducted a rural insurgency resulting in thousands of civilian deaths and mass displacements across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, to strike directly at centers of power.

Despite the overshadowing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan, the violence in the Sahel is escalating and has been a significant factor in increasing migration toward Europe. This influx comes as xenophobic far-right parties gain momentum, leading several European nations to tighten their borders.

The U.N.’s International Organization for Migration reported a dramatic increase in migrants arriving in Europe from West African coastal nations, particularly to Spain’s Canary Islands. Specifically, the number of migrants from Sahel countries (including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal) surged by 62% in the first half of 2024, attributed to ongoing conflict and climate impacts.

Fifteen diplomats and experts highlighted that regions under jihadist control pose risks of becoming bases for further attacks on major cities, including Bamako, and other regional or Western targets. Continued jihadi violence has contributed to a series of military coups since 2020 in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger against governments perceived as Western-aligned.

The military regimes that succeeded these governments have shifted their reliance from Western military support to Russian assistance, particularly from the Wagner Group, yet they have struggled with territory losses. Caleb Weiss, an editor and jihadist expert, expressed skepticism about the longevity of these regimes, suggesting the likelihood of substantial territorial losses, potentially leading to the establishment of one or more jihadi states in the Sahel.

The military and intelligence operations by Western powers, previously essential in countering jihadist activities, have been significantly hampered, especially after Niger’s junta expelled U.S. forces from a major drone base in Agadez. The departure of U.S. troops and intelligence-sharing capabilities has left a vacuum in air surveillance and support, allowing jihadist groups to operate more freely.

An analysis of data revealed a near doubling of violent incidents involving jihadists in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger since 2021, with an average of 224 monthly attacks in 2024 compared to 128 in 2021. This alarming trend is causing an uptick in migration, notably among women and families fleeing the escalating violence.

In Burkina Faso, considered one of the most severely affected areas, hundreds of civilians were massacred in a single day in late August. The Institute for Economics and Peace reported a significant rise in fatalities from terrorism in Burkina Faso, highlighting that it now leads the Global Terrorism Index for the first time, with a reported 1,907 deaths linked to terrorism in the past year.

As the jihadists expand their territorial control, they actively recruit and govern through a mix of coercion and the provision of basic services, taking advantage of longstanding grievances against inefficient and corrupt central governments.

The dynamics among jihadist groups are complex, with intermittent conflicts and local agreements shaping their interactions. They fund their activities through taxation in controlled areas and by seizing arms after engagements with government troops.

European nations are divided on how to address the Sahel crisis, with those most affected by migration favoring dialogue with the ruling juntas, while others raise concerns about human rights violations. Overall, there is a consensus that Europe needs to engage with the issue, as the challenges posed by migration are not likely to recede soon.

Despite potential cooperation, European capabilities to intervene are limited, with many Sahelian states resistant to Western engagement. Concerns remain that the Sahel could become a new breeding ground for global jihadism, with aspirations by extremist organizations to launch attacks beyond the region.

Recent attacks, such as those in Bamako and Barsalogho, emphasize the urgent need for countries like Mali and Burkina Faso to reevaluate their security strategies to counter rising jihadist threats. Experts stress that these nations require new approaches to effectively address the insurgencies plaguing their territories.