Marcos-Duterte Battle in Focus as Philippines Prepares for Midterm Election

By Karen Lema and Mikhail Flores

MANILA – Registration kicks off in the Philippines on Tuesday for one of the world’s largest midterm elections. This election is expected to feature a contentious proxy battle between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his fiery predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.

Scheduled for May 2025, the election will serve as a key indicator of Marcos’ popularity and a vital opportunity for him to consolidate power and prepare a successor. The influential Duterte family is likely to oppose these ambitions following a significant rift between the two families.

Under Philippine law, presidents are restricted to a single six-year term.

While 317 congressional seats and thousands of regional and city positions are contested, attention is primarily focused on the 12 available seats in the 24-member Senate—a chamber known for its considerable influence and presence of political heavyweights.

There is widespread speculation that Duterte, now 79, along with two of his sons, might enter the senatorial race in an effort to undermine Marcos. Neither Duterte’s office nor that of his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, has responded to requests for comments regarding this speculation.

The midterm elections come on the heels of a significant rupture in the alliance between the Duterte and Marcos families, which had previously facilitated a landslide victory for Marcos in 2022. Initially, Sara Duterte was the frontrunner for the presidency in public surveys but ultimately chose to run as Marcos’ vice-presidential candidate.

Their relationship has soured due to differences in policy, the disintegration of Rodrigo Duterte’s pro-China foreign policy, ongoing investigations into his controversial anti-drug campaign, and other scandals involving his associates. Recently, Sara Duterte stepped down from her cabinet post and faced substantial budget cuts from Congress, controlled by the president’s cousin, after refusing to attend hearings.

A STRATEGIC MOVE

Securing Senate seats could provide the Duterte family with a powerful platform in the Philippines’ politically-driven landscape, allowing them to rally support, confront Marcos’ legislation, and initiate inquiries into the current administration.

"The focus will indeed be on who among them will run… or if all of them will enter the race," noted Ederson Tapia, a public administration professor at the University of Makati. "Despite the controversies surrounding Vice President Sara, the Dutertes remain a potent political force."

A recent survey indicated that while Sara Duterte’s approval ratings have declined, they still surpass those of Marcos.

In a bid to strengthen his position, Marcos has begun endorsing well-known local candidates for the Senate, including three former actors, the daughter of the country’s wealthiest individual, and two former presidential rivals, including boxing icon Manny Pacquiao.

Rodrigo Duterte ranked between fourth and fifth in a separate poll last month regarding potential senatorial candidates, while administration allies secured nine of the other spots.

Notably, Imee Marcos, sister of the president, is seeking re-election but has opted not to accept her brother’s endorsement to avoid placing him in a challenging situation.

Political science professor Jean Encinas-Franco from the University of the Philippines emphasized that a successful midterm for President Marcos could be essential for his legacy.

"If most of those he endorsed manage to win in the Senate and the House, it guarantees that his legislative initiatives will proceed," she stated. "This also positions him to endorse a candidate for the 2028 presidential elections."