Incoming Japan PM Ishiba’s ‘Asian NATO’ Proposal Tests US Diplomacy

By Tim Kelly

TOKYO – Shigeru Ishiba, newly elected as Japan’s next prime minister, could create diplomatic challenges for the United States with his proposals aimed at overhauling Tokyo’s key alliance. His vision includes an "Asian NATO" and the placement of Japanese troops on U.S. territory.

Ishiba, who became the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Friday, expressed his ideas in a recent paper presented to a think tank. He contends that these proposed changes would act as a deterrent against Chinese military aggression in Asia.

In his paper, Ishiba noted, "The absence of a collective self-defense system like NATO in Asia means that wars are likely to break out because there is no obligation for mutual defense." This sentiment reflects widespread concern among Japanese politicians regarding increased Chinese military activity near Japanese islands.

However, the notion of an Asian NATO has been met with skepticism in Washington. Daniel Kritenbrink, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific, has dismissed the idea as premature.

"He’s very technical about military matters but in terms of national security diplomacy, he really hasn’t shown much prowess," remarked Joseph Kraft, a financial political analyst based in Tokyo.

Despite the pushback, Ishiba reiterated his stance during a press conference, arguing that the perceived "relative decline of U.S. might" necessitates the establishment of an Asian treaty organization.

Since World War II, Japan has relied heavily on U.S. protection, which includes a nuclear umbrella and a military presence comprising aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and around 50,000 troops stationed in the country.

Ishiba’s proposals could complicate matters as the U.S. seeks to strengthen its alliances while Japan pursues deeper defense collaborations with countries like South Korea and Australia, as well as enhancing ties with European nations in response to China’s expanding influence.

He envisions that his proposed NATO would unify existing diplomatic and security agreements, incorporating frameworks like the Quad—consisting of Japan, the U.S., Australia, and India—along with the AUKUS pact between Australia, the U.S., and the U.K., as well as Japan’s evolving security partnership with Seoul.

Moreover, Ishiba suggested that this new security alliance could involve shared control over U.S. nuclear weapons as a deterrent against other nuclear-capable neighbors.

In his campaign leading up to the election, Ishiba emphasized his desire for a more balanced alliance with the U.S., which would include greater oversight of U.S. military bases in Japan—a point of ongoing tension in local communities.

In his paper, Ishiba, known for being a maverick within the LDP, also proposed revising Japan’s military alliance to permit the deployment of Japanese troops to Guam, a U.S. territory, for the first time since 1944.

However, Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at The Asia Group Japan, expressed skepticism, stating, "I would venture to guess that that’s not going to happen. It seems like he’s trying to fundamentally change the relationship, but not entirely negatively."