Apple: iPhone 16 Lead Times Stabilizing, According to Morgan Stanley

According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, lead times for Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models are stabilizing and even extending, which represents an unexpectedly positive trend.

As of September 27, lead times for the iPhone 16 are still shorter than previous cycles for the last three iPhone launches, but the recent stabilization of lead times for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models is noteworthy.

The analysts noted that at T+14, lead times for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max have increased by two days compared to T+11, contrasting with the lead times for the iPhone 14 and 15 Pro/Pro Max, which had shortened by 4-5 days at this same point in their respective cycles.

This increase suggests that demand for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max is more in line with the successful iPhone 12 and 13 launches, rather than the less favorable iPhone 14 and 15 cycles.

Morgan Stanley observed a similar trend on a global scale, stating that lead times for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max have extended by approximately two days, on average, in all regions except for China.

The bank noted that the pattern resembles that of the iPhone 12 and 13, which experienced prolonged lead times due to supply chain issues. However, there have been no reported supply chain disruptions for the iPhone 16 models.

While Apple has made adjustments to its wafer orders at TSMC, Morgan Stanley does not view this as a sign of declining demand for the iPhone 16. The analysts suggest that Apple likely has surplus processor inventories, indicating that the adjustment is not a direct reflection of current demand trends.

Morgan Stanley’s outlook on the iPhone 16 cycle remains stable, but they are monitoring the recent trend of stabilizing lead times as it could be a positive sign for the future.