Europe’s Snub of Russian Oil Opens Door for OPEC’s Smaller Players

OPEC nations stepping in to replace Russian oil supplies to Europe are not predominantly the major players from the Middle East. Instead, lesser-known members of the group are taking on an increasingly significant role.

Recently, West African oil producers have noticeably increased their shipments to European ports, where refiners are moving away from Russian oil following the invasion of Ukraine. In contrast, major OPEC producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have largely opted against increasing their own shipments to Europe, despite having considerable spare production capacity.

Shipments of West African crude to Europe climbed to an average of 1.23 million barrels per day in March and April, a 40% increase compared to the same time last year, marking the highest level since February 2020, according to tanker-tracking data.

This rise in exports occurs even as Nigeria and Angola, the region’s primary producers, face challenges in boosting production due to limited capacity, decreased investment, and operational issues. As a result, the uptick in European sales is reflected in a 20% reduction in the region’s shipments to Asia.

It is important to note that the United States has been the leading supplier replacing Russian oil volumes in Europe. Should the European Union follow through with plans for a complete ban on Russian oil, the West African nations might find it difficult to sustain their increased exports. This scenario could present a compelling opportunity for OPEC’s Persian Gulf heavyweights, who have so far hesitated to encroach on Moscow’s European market share.