U.S. Housing Market Faces Potential Recession Due to Rising Mortgage Rates

The US housing market may be facing a recession as mortgage rates approach 8%, according to economists at Wells Fargo. This trend is primarily due to the Federal Reserve’s extensive interest-rate hikes that began in March 2022, a tactic aimed at curbing inflation that is anticipated to continue into 2024.

The Federal Reserve’s current policies could lead to reduced construction and housing activity. After exhibiting signs of recovery in early 2023, the residential sector is now experiencing a downturn. Even if mortgage rates decrease with a shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, high financing costs may persist, inhibiting new construction and dissuading homeowners with favorable mortgage rates from selling.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has surged from below 4% to nearly 8%, and during the first half of 2023, only 1% of Americans chose to sell their homes. This decline indicates a potential slowdown in housing market activity.

Various organizations have called on Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, to rethink the current rate-hiking strategy. These organizations include the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Homebuilders. This situation reflects sentiments reminiscent of the 1980s when builders in Jackson, Mississippi, appealed to former Fed Chair Paul Volcker with the urgent message, “Help! Help! We Need You. Please Lower Interest Rates.”

The ongoing developments highlight increasing concerns about the effects of rising interest rates on the housing market. As economists continue to assess these trends, it is evident that upcoming decisions by the Federal Reserve will play a crucial role in shaping the future of the US housing market.