Analysis: Can Mexico’s Sheinbaum, a Climate Scientist, Transform Lopez Obrador’s Oil Legacy?

By Cassandra Garrison

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s President-elect and a distinguished climate scientist, may face challenges in realizing her environmental commitments after her victory, which was partially fueled by the popularity of her predecessor’s fossil fuel policies.

Elected as the first female president with a resounding majority, Sheinbaum takes office at a time when Mexico is contending with significant climate-related issues, including severe droughts, a water crisis in Mexico City, and widespread deforestation.

The 61-year-old leftist leader, who was part of a United Nations climate panel awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, promotes a scientific perspective in governance. She has pledged to elevate renewable energy sources in the oil-dependent nation to 50% by the end of her term in 2030.

However, Sheinbaum must navigate the legacy of her mentor, the outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who invested heavily in state-owned energy companies reliant on fossil fuels—Pemex and CFE.

Her decisive victory, along with the potential legislative supermajority for her ruling coalition, can be seen as an endorsement of Lopez Obrador’s policies, according to Mariana Campero of the CSIS Americas Program. This dynamic might complicate Sheinbaum’s efforts to shift away from her predecessor’s strategies while maintaining political support.

Campero remarked, "She has indicated that she will continue with his policies, but she also emphasizes the importance of green energy. The question arises: how will she reconcile these positions?"

PASSION FOR GREEN INITIATIVES

Sheinbaum attributes her dedication to science and public policy to her upbringing, with a chemical engineer for a father and a cellular biologist for a mother. She holds a doctorate in energy engineering from the National Autonomous University of Mexico.

As the mayor of Mexico City, she implemented a solar energy project at a major market and launched a fully electric bus line. However, she faced scrutiny for certain initiatives, such as a bridge in the Xochimilco ecological zone that was criticized for damaging wetlands. Additionally, she supports controversial projects from Lopez Obrador, including the Mayan Train, which environmentalists argue threatens natural habitats.

Despite the challenges, her ascendance to the presidency has instilled hope among some that she will improve Mexico’s climate change policies, which have regressed under Lopez Obrador due to increased fossil fuel subsidies and inadequate efforts to combat deforestation. Arthur Deakin from America’s Market Intelligence believes she possesses the intent to realign Mexico with international climate commitments.

CHALLENGES WITH PEMEX

Sheinbaum plans to expand wind and solar energy through a substantial investment in new energy projects. Nonetheless, she contends with the largest budget deficit in decades, which will necessitate careful allocation of resources.

Pemex, despite being the world’s most indebted energy company, remains a crucial revenue source for the state. It is a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, yet it symbolizes energy sovereignty for many Mexicans, including Lopez Obrador.

Alejandra Lopez, a public policy consultant specializing in energy matters, highlights the emotional connection many have with Pemex. Sheinbaum’s commitment to a state-driven energy sector, dominated by Pemex, may hinder her ability to achieve her renewable energy goals.

Deakin suggests a business-oriented approach could lure investment and initiate meaningful changes toward decarbonizing the energy and transportation sectors. Sheinbaum might consider raising the limit for Distributed Generation (DG) projects, allowing for larger privately funded renewable energy installations, as Brazil has done.

Increasing the capacity cap from 0.5 megawatts to 5 megawatts could enhance clean energy access for commercial users. She could also promote biofuel initiatives, expand electric vehicle subsidies, and develop charging infrastructure, while a national carbon credit system might encourage investment in low-carbon projects.

Though constrained by a limited budget, Deakin notes that there are strategies emerging markets can adopt to create a more favorable atmosphere for renewable energy development.