Tokyo Governor Koike’s Allies Aim to Replicate Local Success in National Polls

By Linda Sieg

TOKYO – A newly formed political group linked to popular Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike is gearing up for a snap election, expected to be called by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe next month. Unlike traditional parties, this group lacks an official name, a party leader, or a well-defined platform.

Koike, 65, previously a member of the ruling party, is frequently mentioned as a potential candidate to become Japan’s first female prime minister. In the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election held in July, her savvy campaigning tapped into voters’ desire for a viable alternative to Abe’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), resulting in a historic defeat for the LDP.

The governor’s allies are hopeful that her political charisma and reformist agenda will help them achieve similar success on a national scale in the lower house elections. However, some analysts express skepticism about whether the group can extend its influence beyond Tokyo.

Although Koike, a former television announcer, has stated that she is concentrating on her current responsibilities—including preparations for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics—she has not completely ruled out a return to parliamentary politics. When asked about a possible run for the lower house, Koike expressed her desire to consider what is best for both Tokyo and the nation without committing to a leadership role in the new party.

Initially, her allies planned to launch the party by the end of the year, but they pivoted quickly in response to Abe’s anticipated announcement of an October 22 general election.

“We are in the process of developing party policies, a name, and by-laws,” said Goshi Hosono, a former environment minister involved in the party’s formation. Disappointed with the Democratic Party’s inability to exploit widespread voter discontent regarding recent cronyism scandals, several lawmakers, including Hosono, have left the struggling party.

While Abe’s support has rebounded to around 50 percent after a decline, many voters remain disenchanted with the LDP and the opposition Democrats. A recent poll indicated that 45 percent of respondents did not support any party, surpassing the 40 percent backing the LDP, with only 5 percent favoring the Democrats.

Despite 41 percent of respondents expressing interest in a party led by Koike, transforming that enthusiasm into actual votes remains uncertain.

The nascent party aims to contest more than 60 seats, 25 of which will be in Tokyo. They will not receive formal backing from Komeito, the coalition partner of the LDP that supported Tokyo Citizens First candidates in the recent local elections.

Potential candidates are expected to include a mix of former and current lawmakers, as well as political newcomers who attended Koike’s recent seminar for aspiring politicians. The group is characterized as “conservative,” with some members advocating for changes to Japan’s post-war constitution, specifically Article 9, which renounces war.

Political analysts point out that for the new party to stand out from the LDP, it will need a clear differentiation strategy. Many new political parties in Japan have historically failed to gain traction. Koike entered politics through one such now-defunct party in the early 1990s and has been part of various political groups before aligning with the LDP.

Forecasting the new party’s future is tricky; much hinges on media portrayal and whether Koike assumes a leadership role or opts to run for parliament, a choice that could lead to backlash from Tokyo voters.

Analysts like Nihon University professor Tomoaki Iwai caution against high expectations for the emerging party.

Currently, the LDP holds 288 seats in the 475-member lower house, while Komeito has 35, giving the coalition a comfortable two-thirds majority. The Democrats occupy 88 seats, but reforms will reduce the house size to 465 members in the near future.