China’s PLA Conducts Rare Publicized Test Launch of Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

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By Laurie Chen and Ben Blanchard

BEIJING/TAIPEI – On Wednesday, China announced that it had successfully executed a rare launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean. This action is likely to amplify international concerns regarding the nation’s expanding nuclear capabilities.

The missile, equipped with a dummy warhead, was launched at 8:44 a.m. local time. According to the Chinese defense ministry, it "fell into expected sea areas" and was part of a "routine arrangement in our annual training plan," emphasizing that it was not intended as a threat to any specific country.

Prior to the launch, China notified the United States, with a Pentagon spokesperson describing this as "a step in the right direction to reducing the risks of misperception and miscalculation." Additionally, a report indicated that China informed other relevant countries in advance, although specifics regarding the missile’s trajectory or the exact landing area in the Pacific were not detailed.

The launch was said to have effectively tested the performance of China’s weaponry and the readiness of its troops, achieving its planned objectives. A Japan Coast Guard official mentioned that they received a navigation warning from China regarding "space debris" in areas of the South China Sea and the Pacific, but did not confirm if this was related to the missile launch.

It is uncommon for China to launch long-range missiles into open waters, as it typically conducts such tests in less publicized locations like Inner Mongolia, according to analysts. The PLA Rocket Force, which manages conventional and nuclear missiles, is focused on modernizing China’s nuclear capabilities, responding to advancements in U.S. missile defense systems and enhanced military partnerships.

Security analyst Alexander Neill noted that although the specifics of the missile used were unclear, the test aligns with China’s strategic approach of both engaging and issuing warnings to the U.S. The recent corruption scandals within the Rocket Force have made it crucial for China to demonstrate the stability and operational readiness of its military leadership.

Despite this demonstration, the Pentagon expressed the desire for a more structured arrangement for notifying about ballistic missile launches, highlighting concerns over China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal.

China maintains a "no first use" nuclear weapons policy, yet analysts observe that its military is increasingly advancing to develop a triad of missile capabilities that include land, sea, and air launch systems. The Central Military Commission, led by President Xi Jinping, is recognized as the sole authority on nuclear command in China.

China has been criticized for the lack of transparency regarding its nuclear development, particularly after suspending nuclear talks with the U.S. in July due to disagreements over arms sales to Taiwan. Current estimates indicate that China possesses over 500 operational nuclear warheads, including around 350 ICBMs, with projections suggesting that this number may exceed 1,000 by 2030.

In contrast, the U.S. and Russia have 1,770 and 1,710 operational warheads, respectively. The Pentagon anticipates that many of China’s weapons could be ready for rapid deployment in the coming years.

Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory, has reported increased military activities from China in recent years. On Wednesday, Taiwan’s defense ministry detected 23 Chinese military aircraft conducting operations near the island.

Additionally, the ministry noted a recent surge in Chinese missile firings and military drills, although it did not specify the locations of these activities. In response, Taiwan has mobilized its own air and naval forces to monitor the situation.