Colombia’s 12-Month Inflation Expected to Slow in September Despite Truckers’ Strike: Reuters Poll

By Nelson Bocanegra

BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombia’s inflation rate over the past 12 months is expected to continue its decline in September, despite disruptions caused by a truckers’ strike, according to a Reuters poll conducted on Wednesday. Expectations for the inflation rate for the remainder of the year remain steady.

The median forecast from 20 analysts predicts that Colombia’s 12-month inflation will drop to 5.83% by the end of September, down from 6.12% at the end of August, though still significantly above the central bank’s long-term target of 3%.

If the prediction holds true, consumer prices are anticipated to increase by 0.26% in September, which is comparable to the 0.25% rise seen in the same month last year, but higher than the 0% change reported in August. Analysts have offered a range of estimates from 0.17% to 0.38%.

Jackeline Pirajan, chief economist for Colombia at Scotiabank, noted that the education sector is expected to see a boost due to the school calendar, while moderate inflation is anticipated in other sectors. She also mentioned that the impact of the national strike on food prices was evident at the beginning of September but is “fading quickly.”

The country experienced a four-day truckers’ strike during the first week of September in response to rising diesel prices, which led to food and fuel shortages in major cities.

The significant slowdown in inflation has been a key factor behind the central bank’s decision to reduce its interest rate by 275 basis points since the downward trend began in December 2023.

On Monday, the monetary authority lowered the rate by 50 basis points to 10.25%. The decision came after a divided vote, where three of the seven board members favored a cut of 75 basis points, while the remaining four opted for a more cautious approach to managing inflation.

Current forecasts suggest that inflation will close this year at 5.6%, nearly unchanged from the 5.61% projected last month, while expectations for the end of 2025 have slightly decreased to 3.70%, down from the previous survey’s estimate of 3.75%.