Despite Biden’s Doubts, Humanitarian Agencies View Gaza Toll as Reliable, According to Reuters

By Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber

GENEVA (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden has expressed skepticism about casualty figures reported by Palestinian officials in Gaza, while international humanitarian organizations find these figures to be largely accurate and historically trustworthy.

There is agreement that Israeli attacks on Gaza have resulted in significant fatalities since Hamas initiated conflict in southern Israel on October 7. However, Biden stated on Wednesday that he had "no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using," without providing further explanation.

In response, the health ministry in Gaza, controlled by Hamas, released a comprehensive document listing approximately 7,000 Palestinians it claims have been killed due to the Israeli bombardment.

Although international organizations, including some active in Gaza, cannot independently verify these casualty numbers, reporters have witnessed a considerable number of bodies. The United Nations and other global agencies acknowledge that while minor discrepancies may occur in the casualty numbers reported immediately after attacks, they generally regard the statistics provided by the Gaza health ministry as reliable.

"The data is included in our reporting, clearly sourced," stated the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). They noted, however, that it is nearly impossible to provide daily verification from the U.N. at this time.

Dr. Mike Ryan, Executive Director of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Programme, remarked last week that casualty figures released by both sides might not be perfectly accurate at every moment, but they "generally reflect the level of death and injury on both sides of that conflict."

Human Rights Watch, based in New York, also affirmed that casualty figures have been largely dependable, indicating that they have not identified significant discrepancies in their verification of past strikes on Gaza. "The numbers emerging since October 7 are consistent with what one would expect given the scale of killings, particularly in such a densely populated area," Omar Shakir, Director for Israel and Palestine at Human Rights Watch, commented.

A World Health Organization official emphasized the challenges in accurately determining death tolls, revealing that around 1,000 unidentified bodies may still lie under rubble in Gaza and have not yet been included in the reported totals.

While Hamas governs Gaza and closely monitors information dissemination, the formal responsibility for the health ministry lies with the Palestinian Authority (PA) based in the West Bank. Dominated by Fatah, which is Hamas’s primary rival, the PA oversees hospital salaries and equipment provision in Gaza. A spokesman in Ramallah explained that casualty figures are reported based on data collected from hospitals and emergency services, in coordination with the Red Crescent. Initial identifications focus on age, sex, and injury type, with full identities confirmed later. He noted that figures reported in Gaza are later updated in Ramallah, generally resulting in minimal discrepancies.

Israel has not provided its own estimated death toll. Historical patterns reveal that Palestinian authorities have reported casualty numbers similarly to past conflicts, such as the one in 2014, where figures from various reports were not significantly divergent.

In a report from 2015, the Palestinian health ministry stated that 2,322 people had died during the July-August 2014 conflict in Gaza. A U.N.-mandated inquiry reported 2,251 fatalities, while the Israeli Foreign Ministry cited a toll of 2,125 Palestinians killed based on military data. Other sources also reported over 2,100 fatalities.

Israel has been conducting attacks on Gaza following cross-border incursions, during which it alleged that 1,400 individuals were killed by Hamas in southern Israel. At a press conference, Biden did not clarify why he doubted the casualty figures provided by Palestinian authorities.

An Israeli military spokesperson claimed that the Gaza health ministry tends to inflate civilian casualty numbers and has previously provided misleading information. He cited an incident regarding an attack on Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital in Gaza, where the ministry reported an initial death toll of 500, later revising it to 471. Meanwhile, another Israeli spokesperson did not provide an estimated overall casualty figure when prompted.

An unclassified U.S. intelligence report estimated the death toll in the hospital incident to likely fall within a range of 100 to 300, while an Israeli official noted that it seems to consist of "several dozen" casualties.

Palestinian officials highlighted the challenges of calculating the number of dead from the hospital attack, as some victims were dismembered, complicating identification efforts.