Central Bank Chief Fraga by Reuters

By Lisa Pauline Mattackal

Brazil’s fiscal situation is becoming increasingly precarious due to inadequate government spending cuts, rising global interest rates, and tighter liquidity, according to a former central bank governor. Arminio Fraga, who led Banco Central do Brasil from 1999 to 2002, expressed concerns regarding the country’s financial stability.

Fraga acknowledged that recent reform initiatives, such as a new fiscal framework aimed at curbing the growing public debt and plans for tax reform, are positive steps. However, he believes these measures may not be enough to address the underlying issues.

"I think it would be imprudent to count on ‘blue skies and good weather’ going forward. Sadly, we’re not in a position to relax," Fraga remarked during the Reuters Global Markets Forum. He pointed out that the government is not seriously considering traditional expenditure cuts and faces significant challenges in passing reforms through Congress.

"This leaves a fragile fiscal situation, in my view, into the distant future," Fraga added.

As major central banks around the world indicate a prolonged period of high interest rates, Fraga noted that the tightening supply of available capital could negatively impact investment and growth in emerging markets.

In contrast, Brazil’s central bank reduced interest rates by 50 basis points to 13.25% in August and is expected to continue easing at a similar rate in upcoming meetings.

Despite the more aggressive rate cut than anticipated, Fraga mentioned that the central bank remains cautious, needing to assess the effects of lower rates carefully in future meetings. He is not optimistic about a favorable environment for foreign investment in Brazil, even with potential shifts away from China, since the current fiscal reforms might already be factored into the market.