Brazil’s Pix Set to Surpass Credit Cards in E-Commerce by 2025, Study Reveals

SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Brazil’s instant payment system, Pix, is expected to overtake credit cards as the leading method for online purchases in the country as early as next year, according to a new study by Brazilian payments firm Ebanx.

Launched by the central bank at the end of 2020, Pix has rapidly emerged as a popular choice for money transfers and purchases, primarily due to its instant and mostly free transactions.

The study, informed by data from PCMI, forecasts that Pix will capture 44% of Brazil’s online payment market by the end of 2025, while credit cards are projected to hold a 41% share. Earlier estimates had suggested that Pix would merely match credit cards’ market presence by the end of 2026.

Juliana Etcheverry, Ebanx’s director of country growth for Latin America, noted that Pix has driven financial inclusion, encouraging more merchants to adopt the instant payment system. She described this as a "chicken-and-egg scenario, a virtuous cycle."

By late 2022, the central bank reported that approximately 71.5 million Brazilians gained access to the financial system through Pix. The significant growth in both retail and travel sectors of the digital market also contributes to the positive outlook for the payment system.

In the coming years, the central bank plans to introduce new Pix features, including options for installment payments, which could pose a greater challenge to credit card usage. According to Etcheverry, some former credit card users have already begun transitioning to Pix.

While the outlook for credit cards remains largely unchanged from previous assessments—indicating a continuing decline from their 49% share of the e-commerce market in 2023—Etcheverry does not believe that Pix will completely replace credit cards. "The cards industry is also investing in protocols and features that would enable them to maintain their market presence," she stated.

As a sign of its rising popularity, the central bank announced that Pix recorded 227.4 million transactions on a single day last Friday, marking the highest number ever for the system in one day.