El Niño Fading, La Niña Expected to Develop in Second Half of 2024 – Reuters

The La Niña weather pattern, known for its unusually cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is anticipated to develop in the latter half of 2024 following a strong El Niño year, according to a U.S. government weather forecaster.

Typically, La Niña leads to increased precipitation in regions like Australia, Southeast Asia, and India, while causing drier conditions in grain and oilseed-producing areas of the Americas.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) noted that forecasts made during the spring can be somewhat unreliable, but there is a historical trend of La Niña following powerful El Niño events. The current El Niño pattern, which has resulted in hot and dry weather across Asia and above-average rainfall in some parts of the Americas, is expected to transition to neutral conditions between April and June of 2024.

The CPC has indicated a 55% probability of La Niña conditions emerging between June and August. According to Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities at BMI, this shift is likely to impact wheat and corn production in the U.S., as well as soybean and corn output in Latin America, particularly Brazil.

Last year, India, the world’s largest rice supplier, imposed restrictions on rice exports due to poor monsoon conditions, while wheat production in Australia, the second-largest exporter, also suffered. Moreover, palm oil plantations and rice farms in Southeast Asia received less rainfall than usual.

An official with the India Meteorological Department remarked that La Niña conditions generally benefit the Indian monsoon, which is expected to deliver plentiful rainfall during years characterized by this phenomenon. The crucial June-September monsoon season supplies nearly 70% of the rainfall needed by India’s economy, valued at $3 trillion, to support crops and replenish water sources.