Experts Suggest Putin’s Options for Ukraine Missile Response Include Nuclear Test

LONDON (Reuters) – Analysts indicate that Vladimir Putin may retaliate if the West permits Ukraine to utilize long-range missiles against Russia. Possible actions could include targeting British military assets or, in extreme cases, conducting a nuclear test to demonstrate resolve.

As tensions between East and West escalate concerning Ukraine, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and U.S. President Joe Biden are set to discuss, in Washington on Friday, whether to allow Kyiv the use of long-range U.S. ATACMS or British Storm Shadow missiles against Russian targets.

Putin issued a stark warning on Thursday, asserting that if the West proceeds with this decision, it would be viewed as direct conflict against Russia, fundamentally changing the nature of the ongoing war. He vowed an “appropriate” response, although he did not specify what that would entail.

In previous remarks, Putin mentioned the possibility of providing arms to Russia’s adversaries for strikes on Western targets and deploying conventional missiles that threaten the U.S. and its European allies. Ulrich Kuehn, an arms expert, noted that it is conceivable that Putin may resort to some form of nuclear demonstration, such as testing a nuclear weapon, to intimidate the West. Kuehn described this as a significant escalation, questioning what options Putin would have left if Western support for Ukraine persists.

Russia has not conducted a nuclear test since 1990, prior to the Soviet Union’s collapse. Such an action would signal a shift to a much more perilous reality. Kuehn warned that Putin might feel pressured to respond aggressively, especially given the increasing NATO support for Ukraine.

Security specialist Gerhard Mangott agreed that a nuclear signal from Russia is possible, although he deemed it unlikely. He mentioned that Russia could conduct a nuclear test to assert its seriousness regarding potential nuclear engagement.

Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, remarked that if NATO permits the use of longer-range weapons by Ukraine, it may be seen as direct involvement in hostilities against a nuclear power. He cautioned against underestimating the implications of such actions.

As the largest nuclear power, Russia is revising its nuclear doctrine to potentially allow limited use of its nuclear arsenal against NATO. This revision is being influenced by hawkish elements within the country who argue for increased flexibility in nuclear policy.

Regarding the United Kingdom, former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov suggested that if London allows Ukraine to engage with Storm Shadow missiles, it may provoke a declaration of direct aggression by Moscow. He predicted that Russia might retaliate by closing embassies and targeting British military assets, including planes and drones operating near Russian territory.

Putin has attempted to define limits for the West in the past, but these efforts have been largely ignored. This latest warning is interpreted both within Russia and globally as a signal that action may be necessary if British or American missiles are used against Russia.

Mangott pointed out that the prominent coverage of Putin’s warnings in Russian media has increased expectations for some form of action. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, affirmed that the president’s message was clear and unequivocal.

Markov elaborated that Russia seems determined to change its strategy in response to the incremental aid provided to Ukraine by the West, labeling any further assistance that reaches Ukraine as crossing a significant line.

Sergei Mironov, a pro-Kremlin political leader, stated that the time has arrived for the West to decide if it seeks a full-scale conflict with Russia.

Short of nuclear threats or attacks on British assets, analysts warn that Russia might respond by intensifying assaults on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Mangott believes that Ukraine would face the brunt of such military escalations if the West permits Ukraine to act against Russian targets. Additionally, Russia could engage in hybrid tactics, including sabotage in Europe and interference in U.S. elections.

Kuehn expressed concern that the West may not accurately gauge Putin’s red lines, suggesting that allowing Ukraine to utilize Western weaponry and intelligence approaches very closely encroaches on vital Russian interests and could provoke a serious response.