Explainer: How Ethiopia’s Dispute with Somalia Could Destabilize the Horn of Africa

Article Rewritten:

By Giulia Paravicini

NAIROBI – Ethiopia’s recent agreement to lease a port in Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, has sparked outrage from the Somali government and raised fears of further destabilization in the Horn of Africa.

Under a memorandum signed on January 1, Ethiopia, which is landlocked, will lease 20 kilometers around Somaliland’s Berbera port for a duration of 50 years. In return, Ethiopia will provide stakes in state-run companies and may potentially recognize Somaliland’s claims for independence.

The Somali government has denounced the agreement as an act of aggression and has vowed to block its implementation. Ethiopia defends the deal, asserting it is simply a commercial arrangement to secure maritime access.

Why Does Ethiopia Want a Port?

Ethiopia, home to approximately 120 million people and the second most populous country in Africa, relies heavily on ports in Djibouti for over 90% of its trade, incurring more than $1.5 billion annually in transit fees. In a speech last October, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized the importance of access to the sea, referencing a historical figure who regarded the Red Sea as Ethiopia’s "natural boundary."

Ethiopia lost its access to the sea in the early 1990s when Eritrea, its former province, gained independence after a prolonged conflict. Abiy’s push for reclaimed sea access has garnered significant political support. Furthermore, the prime minister seeks to establish a naval base for Ethiopia’s recently revitalized navy, which has so far been restricted to training exercises on an inland lake.

Why Is Somalia So Angry?

The government in Mogadishu views Somaliland as an integral part of Somalia, despite its de facto autonomy. Somaliland declared independence in 1991, but has not received international recognition. Should Ethiopia formally recognize Somaliland, it could set a precedent for other nations to follow.

In response, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud enacted a law to nullify the agreement and turned down an African Union initiative for discussions, emphasizing that he would not negotiate Somalia’s sovereignty.

What Are Regional Countries Saying?

Amid ongoing instability in Somalia, alongside Ethiopia and Sudan, and considering the Horn of Africa’s strategic position across the Red Sea from the Gulf, some analysts worry that the escalating conflict could attract external actors.

Middle Eastern countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and Qatar, have been competing for influence in the region through economic investments, military installations, and arms sales.

Thus far, no nation has publicly supported the port agreement. The Arab League, of which Somalia is a member, along with the African Union, European Union, and United States, have affirmed their backing for Somalia’s sovereignty over Somaliland.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt, which has tense relations with Ethiopia due to a dispute over a dam on the Nile, asserted that he would not tolerate threats to Somalia’s sovereignty.

Eritrea has yet to comment on the deal; however, President Isaias Afwerki extended an invitation to Somalia’s President Mohamud shortly after the agreement was made public. The UAE, a strong ally of both Ethiopia and Somaliland and the administrator of Berbera port via a state-owned company, has refrained from further commentary beyond the statement made by the Arab League.