Explainer: Why Does Russia Aim to Capture Ukraine’s Avdiivka?

By Dan Peleschuk and Andrew Osborn

KYIV/LONDON – Russian forces are ramping up their efforts to take control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka as the conflict in Ukraine continues. The clashes echo the intense combat previously seen in Bakhmut, which fell to Russian forces last May after protracted urban warfare. This comes 15 months into a full-scale invasion that Moscow refers to as a "special military operation."

Understanding Avdiivka

Avdiivka, known as Avdeyevka in Russian, had a pre-war population of approximately 32,000 and has been a frontline city since 2014, when it was briefly occupied by separatists supported by Moscow. Currently, fewer than 1,000 residents remain, many of whom are taking refuge in cellars and basements. Officials have reported that not a single building in the city is intact.

Located in the industrial Donbas region, Avdiivka is situated just 15 kilometers north of Donetsk, a city under Russian control. Before the conflict, Avdiivka housed a prominent Soviet-era coke plant, one of the leading producers in Europe.

Russian-backed officials describe the city as a fortified "fortress" with concrete bunkers, asserting that defenders are entrenched in tower blocks, making direct assaults costly. They allege that the coking plant has been repurposed as a strategic base and weapons depot.

Intense Combat

The offensive on Avdiivka has been reported to incur a significant human toll. British military intelligence indicated in November that this fighting had contributed to some of the heaviest casualty rates for Russian forces throughout the war.

A member of Ukraine’s 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade noted that Russian troops continue to arrive in fresh waves despite adverse conditions, stating, "They keep crawling – literally over the bodies of their own."

While Russian war bloggers have acknowledged the heavy losses their side has faced, they have also claimed that Ukrainian forces have incurred significant casualties. They suggest that Ukrainian troops could be surrounded if Russian forces manage to sever their last primary supply line to the west.

On January 31, President Vladimir Putin emphasized the strategic importance of Avdiivka, claiming that military veterans had recently advanced and secured 19 buildings, although these battlefield reports remain unverified.

The Russian military has been conducting airstrikes with assistance from special forces and employing a combination of artillery, drones, helicopters, and tanks alongside infantry.

What’s at Stake?

Both sides consider Avdiivka crucial for Russia’s objective of establishing complete control over the two eastern Donbas provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk, which are among the four regions Russia claims to have annexed but does not fully control.

Seizing Avdiivka could improve Russian morale and dishearten Ukrainian forces, which have made limited gains in a broad counteroffensive that started in June. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy himself visited the city in December.

Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin advisor, stated that if Russian forces secure the supply road, it would compel the Ukrainian armed forces to withdraw from Avdiivka, marking a significant victory for Russia.

Mykola Bielieskov from the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv expressed that while capturing Avdiivka would not decisively change the battle’s dynamics in favor of Moscow, it would enhance the conditions for Donetsk, a critical logistical hub for Russian forces. Bielieskov also believes that the Kremlin is motivated to strengthen the positions of Western skeptics who argue for reduced support to Kyiv, especially in light of the limited effectiveness of vast military aid.